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To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (7200)	9/23/2002 5:55:00 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 89467

Message 18025464

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (7200)	9/23/2002 6:00:53 PM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

Dollar rises Associated Press Monday September 23, 5:52 pm ET NEW YORK (AP) -- Shrugging off weaker U.S. equities, the dollar edged higher Monday against its major rivals, as traders used a slide in German stocks and an extremely narrow victory by Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder as an excuse to sell the euro. A report indicating that the Japanese government is encouraging domestic investors to continue to shift funds overseas in a bid to further weaken the yen also helped push the dollar to its strongest level against the yen in three months. The dollar's broad ascent appeared to have been sparked by a wave of euro selling, led by hedge funds and other speculative investors, traders said. What's more, while U.S. stocks clocked up some hefty losses during the session, these were overshadowed by a tumble in German stocks, further clouding the outlook for the euro zone's largest economy. "The woes in German equities underline Chancellor's Schroeder's close election victory, which suggests he will find difficulty in the Bundestag to pass the necessary reforms for getting the economy back on its feet," said Ashraf Laidi, chief currency analyst at MG Financial. Having traded as high as 98.60 cents earlier in the day, the euro fell at one point as low as 97.53 cents, which technical analysts believe paves the way for further euro declines. The yen also seems set to suffer further, as sentiment continues to turn against the Japanese currency after last week's stunning bond market auction failure, as well as the Bank of Japan's unorthodox plan to buy part of the extensive equity holdings from Japanese banks. The yen's losses Monday appeared to stem to some extent from a report by New York-based Medley Global Advisors, which suggested that the finance ministry is trying to encourage Japanese investors to continue to shift their funds overseas, a trend that would automatically help weaken the yen. In late New York trading, the euro was quoted at 97.77 cents, down from 98.07 cents late Friday. In late New York trading, the dollar was quoted at 123.79 yen, up from 123.35 yen late Friday. The dollar was quoted at 1.4968 Swiss francs, up from 1.4937, and 1.5825 Canadian dollars, up from 1.5737. The British pound fell to $1.5507 from $1.5536.

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (7200)	9/23/2002 8:25:55 PM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

Would ousting Iraq's Hussein destabilize The Mideast? Yes: Possible upheavals might create problems hurting U.S. interests By Anthony T. Sullivan Editorial The Detroit News Sunday, September 22, 2002 detnews.com Ousting Saddam Hussein might have more far-reaching consequences than most people imagine. The possible splintering of Iraq as a result of U.S. military action might radically destabilize the Middle East. Such an outcome would do nothing to promote American national interests. Iraq is divided into three parts: the Shiite south, the Sunni center and the Kurdish north. These three constituent parts were soldered together after World War I. Historically, they possessed little in common. During most of the last 75 years, they have been held together only through the heavy hand of the Sunni center. Hussein is very much in that Sunni dictatorial tradition. Of course, what he has done to Kuwait, and to his own people, is abominable. Nevertheless, one may argue that without the "rigor" imposed from Baghdad, Iraq might dissolve, briefly, into three independent statelets. But such statelets would probably not be independent for long. Much larger and more powerful neighbors would likely gobble each of them up soon enough. A fragmented Iraq would introduce radical instability into the Middle East political system. Upheavals would probably metastasize, with unpredictable results. None would foster American national interests. What happens if the United States manages to save Iraq, but in the process loses Saudi Arabia and Jordan? Osama bin Laden, if alive, may well be ecstatic over the myriad possibilities that a U.S. war with Baghdad might offer al-Qaida. What President George W. Bush proposes, if implemented, may well provide terrorists with legions of recruits. Indeed, terrorist threats to the United States might become even greater during and after a war than they are now. Imagine a war with Iraq that initially "succeeds" in toppling Hussein and his loathsome Ba'athist regime, but results in Iraq dissolving into its three parts. Imagine that in the postwar confusion, southern Shiite Iraq (constituting 60 percent of the population) detaches itself from Baghdad. Soon enough, Shiite Iran might step into the breach and occupy or effectively control the Shiite region. By doing so, Iran would place itself on the northern frontier of Saudi Arabia. Seeing this, the Shiites in Saudi Arabia, located overwhelmingly in the eastern part of the country and sitting atop major oil fields, might revolt. The Saudis might well be unable to repress the rebellion, and the Americans might be too overstretched militarily to provide timely assistance. Iranian influence then might plunge southward into the world's most important oil fields. Would this be in the U.S. national interest? Then there is the Sunni center of Iraq. Assume the Sunnis, who comprise only about 20 percent of the Iraqi population, are left bereft in a disintegrated country. But imagine that the Sunni plurality in Syria, despite its Alawite regime, couldn't resist the opportunity to take control of formerly Sunni Iraq. Assume further that the result is the creation of a greater Syria with power projected east into Baghdad and west into Beirut. Would this also be in the American national interest? Finally, assume that in a postwar Iraq the mainly Sunni Kurds in formerly Iraqi Kurdistan, who sit atop a large amount of oil, decide to realize their millennial dream of an independent state. This might well lead the Kurds in both Turkey and Iran to revolt or secede, and to attempt to unite with their kinsmen to the south and west. Turkey and Iran then might send armies into Kurdistan to repress internal secessions and secure control of at least some Kurdish oil. Then imagine that war breaks out between NATO member Turkey and Iran, whose relations have long been poisonous. If even one of these dark scenarios were to occur, the United States would be faced with a host of major new problems, and the war against terrorism would suffer a major setback. Oftentimes, the devil one knows is better than the devils one does not. __________________________________________________________________________ Dr. Anthony T. Sullivan is a distinguished senior scholar who holds an honorary position as an Associate at the Center for Middle Eastern and North African Studies at the University of Michigan. Before his retirement in 2000, Dr. Sullivan was affiliated for 30 years with Earhart Foundation (Ann Arbor, Michigan), most recently as Director of Program and Corporate Secretary. From 1962-1967 Dr. Sullivan taught at International College (Beirut, Lebanon). Dr. Sullivan received his BA from Yale (1960), his MA from Columbia (1961), and his Ph.D from the University of Michigan (1976) in European history and Middle Eastern Studies. He has written two books and some 80 articles and reviews, and has lectured widely at universities in the United States and abroad. Over the past three decades he has traveled frequently to the Middle East in connection with his professional responsibilities and research interests.