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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (5608)	9/24/2002 9:34:54 AM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95480

OT (I wrote this last night but SI wasn't responding) Why will we get a rally? Based on what catalyst? Hope? The ever present "oversold condition"? What? If we were to get a surprise rate cut, that would be a different story but I don't see any reason for a "real" rally at this point. If you mean a major index or 2 might actually show a gain, well, that's possible but I just can't envision a rally at this stage. Almost all good news is being ignored, except for the occasional couple day rally in a given stock. Most of these rallies peter out pretty quickly and within a few days the stock is back to where it was (or worse) before the "good news" was released. In my opinion there are 3 things that are combining together which must be addressed before any thought of the market making a bottom and these are: 1) a lack of confidence in the market and those who control a majority of the action - the major investment houses, 2) the current administration's fiscal policy and the failure of both sides of the isle to address the long term issues facing this country, and 3) the poor global economic climate. Add in the obvious 4th element - terrorism and the worst geo-political environment since the early 70s - and we have a lot of reasons to drop and VERY few reasons to rally. We can't depend on Washington to lead, but we sure can count on them to spend and they have been spending like crazy, throwing bandaids at many problems that need long term conceptual changes, not knee-jerk attempts at appeasing the public. I'm not trying to start a political debate but it would be nice to get some solid leadership in addressing the major concerns that market has about the US's economic future. With this as a foundation block or corner stone, we might be able to reverse the market's current course. Without it, I fail to see what will cause our markets, and those who invest in them, to show signs of confidence. Where are the truly heavy hitters in the investment world? Are they pounding the table to buy US equities? LOL, I don't think so. Here's a classic example of why there's very little confidence in today's analyst community: SoundView sees tech rally in final stretches of year --9:29am - By Julie Rannazzisi SoundView Technology believes that investors are likely to enjoy a significant tech rally in the last stretches of the year. "In the very near term, we expect 2003 revisions to be painful -- painful enough that the recent selling wave is more likely to continue than to reverse for a few more weeks. But we believe the bottom for 2002 will be established by October." SoundView was sanguine on Dow company IBM (IBM) , which it believes is inexpensive and is positioned to capitalize on a rebound in IT spending. VS SoundView trims estimates on Microsoft, Dell, GTW, H-P --9:09am - By Julie Rannazzisi SoundView Technology Group lowered estimates on a number of Systems companies due to weakening fundamentals and concerns over 2002 growth prospects. On Microsoft (MSFT) , SoundView said: "It will be difficult for Microsoft to show significant additional growth without a return in PC growth and IT spending. Microsoft is well positioned once PC and IT spending return [but] we are not buyers of the stock at these levels. Given current growth rates, we believe Microsoft is expensive." The firm sliced its December 2002 revenue and earnings estimates on the software titan. In the PC sector, SoundView trimmed fourth-quarter estimates on Dell Computer (DELL) and Gateway (GTW) while cutting its December quarter numbers on Apple Computer (AAPL) . Dow company Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) also saw its estimates sliced.