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Technology Stocks : eBay - Superb Internet Business Model -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SBerglowe who wrote (7042)	9/24/2002 7:29:56 PM
From: AJ Berger	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7772

Hi Gang, so how are my Shorts? Just thought I'd drop in and say hello! since last time, I shorted around $61 and covered around $54. Now I'm short again above $58 and planning on covering in the $52 range. Cash flow in ebay is negative for the first time since July, so I expect the downdraft to only last a week or so. I doubt eBay will breakdown below $50 without someone who follows them going neutral or sell. All the houses seem to keep 70-80 targets on this stock, so it's hard to get this bloated pig down without institutions jumping ship. I don't think it happen till ebay themselves admit's they are in trouble. I expect ebay to cook the books this quarter to show their fee-free growth in europe, and fee-slowing growth in US at higher margins, also the growth of paypal, and the savings of killing ebay's own payment system. If I'm right, we may not get the downside surprise needed to kill it. I recommend trading this mid-50's channel by only shorting tops, and not longing bottoms. If you are lucky, you'll still be short when any REAL bad news hits; so don't want to be long this stock anytime soon. Even if ebay reports a great quarter, there is too much optimism already built into the price for this stock to rise much past $60. Anyone who's followed ebay over the years knows this stock is capable to 10% moves per day once the institutions losen their grip on it. If you've been watching this stock the past few days knows it's obviously being manipulated by the market makers giving insiders plenty of time to dump before the ebay/pypl merger is over. Anyone using options should look at January. There are some wild contract prices there. Well, no matter how you play this, good luck.