To: BigBull who wrote (46708 ) 9/24/2002 5:28:24 PM From: Bilow Respond to Hi BigBull; Re: "You were the guy telling us there was not even a battle plan being formed precisely when it was. "The US force structure and size opposing Saddam will not even be remotely the same as you inferred with your specious shipping histogram. "I am therefore consigning you to the same ignore oblivion as Stockman Scott! "I am now a flaming, screaming, eye bulging, flared nostril, frothing at the mouth Bulllllllllllllll! Why? Todays housing and car sales numbers, along with three consecutive improvements in LEI's indicate to me that the US recession is OVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Stick a big fat fork in it, brother. #reply-16258285OT I am NOT looking for trading vehicles. I am looking for 5 year holds. 2001 and 2002 will be the years to accumulate long term positions in tech stocks that will retire you. I am particularly fond of software companies. ADBE, MACR, and RATL are favorites of mine. I also like lumber producers in commodities. I may start picking up some OS companies later in the fall but only the biggies like BJS, SII, RIG, and HC. They will be a smaller part of the portfolio and not held as long. #reply-16258425Looks more like '87 to me. The difference is that in 2000-2001 it was a more normal bear market in that the decline didn't happen in one day. IMO the Naz bear is near over. Looking for some real "stark terror" type numbers in the options market before I buy. Glad Wall street is finally throwing in the towel on software. Blood is running in the street and it's Christmas in August! <g> #reply-16283642Yeah, it's hard to find a stock that's a better short candidate than RMBS. But the tech stocks are filled with possibilities: #reply-16304424Well it looks like it's going to be business as usual - round up the usual suspects, bomb some, maybe a few commando raids, and lots and lots of safe havens for these guys. Lights are going out all over the free world tonight. I'm going to look for a nice cabin in the mountains. Hopefully the anthrax stays in the valley. :0{ #reply-16369526The problem with the various global situations you outline can, imo, only lead to further economic weakness on a worldwide basis. Should the US truly decide to declare war, a strict rationing regime would be imposed and US based industrial production would only pick up under a full fledged war footing that would result in massive purchases of material and a similar retooling of industrial production. Using oil as a weapon was a demonstrable failure in the '70s. If used in this context it will be an unmitigated disaster for producers. #reply-16425494
