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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Lee who wrote (23567)	9/26/2002 2:42:00 PM
From: LTK007	Respond to of 74559

Just heard a presentation with a chart from an analyst for Julius Baer(on Bloomberg TV). It was, in terms of logic, deadly regards longterm future for NASDAQ, if he is right. Unfortunately he simply used the term NASDAQ, so i don't know if he meant NDX or COMPX. But this is what his chart displayed. It charted what percentage of Cap-Ex was going to tech companies starting from 1950. It starts at 10% and peaks at 50% at the end of 2000. He states it's ability to get above 50% be unlikely, that the% of Cap-Ex very likely hit it's top as of 2000. In then went how tech stocks were being priced at an impossible growth multiple that led to the wild bubble. While he states that one can find individual stocks or sectors within techs that still have growth of significance the overall growth for the index will be FLAT. Based on that premise his mathematics states that the Nasdaq's future evaluation will be 500.FWIW,that's what the man,Mister Younes(with heavy german accent) did say.Max