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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (19512)	9/26/2002 2:42:06 AM
From: TheBusDriver	Respond to of 36161

A question better asked of jimsioi who does his own TA. IJABOTB (I'm Just A Bozo On This Bus).<g> Here is what Steve Saville thinks at speculative investor whos opinion I value very much: "For the reasons outlined in the latest Weekly Market Update, our expectation is that the channel will hold in the short-term. If it does then the gold price will likely drop back to its 200-day moving-average (currently around $306) or perhaps all the way to the channel bottom ($295-$300). As such, we've suggested that traders take advantage of the recent rally in gold shares and do some selling (whilst, of course, retaining a sizeable core investment in the gold sector in preparation for a major rally later this year). If the channel top doesn't hold, that is, if the gold price breaks-out to the upside in the near future, then a quick move up into the 340s would become likely. As a general rule, it never makes sense to buy when a price is near the top of a channel. This is simply because there is very little to be gained by trying to anticipate a breakout if the price is hovering just below the breakout point (you may as well wait for the breakout to be confirmed). If you have confidence in the trend then it makes more sense to buy after the price has dropped back to near the channel bottom or to some other area where support is likely to materialise." speculative-investor.com We did break out of the channel (just barely) but fell back in the very next day (yesterday). It ain't over yet but does look like Steve's forecase will hold. All depends if the USD can rally to around the 111 mark. If the DOW can continue to rally (along with USD), we could force gold down to the 200 day average methings. Wouldn't that be nice for JPM to get ONE MORE CHANCE to cover? Wayne