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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: goldsheet who wrote (89975)	9/25/2002 4:10:36 PM
From: goldsheet	Respond to of 116815

GFMS predicition of 3% drop in 2002 gold production was primarily based on lousy results for first two quarters at Freeport's Grasberg, but it looks like Grasberg is now over the problems, out of low grqade ore, and back on track: Mr. Moffett said, "After visiting our Grasberg mining operations in Papua, earlier today, I am pleased to report that as previously reported, we continue mining higher-grade ore and our mining operations are performing in a strong fashion. As a result, we now expect to exceed our previous estimates of copper and gold production and sales for the third quarter. Based on production through today, we now estimate that aggregate mine production and sales for the quarter will exceed 510 million pounds of copper and 1,000,000 ounces of gold. We now estimate that PT-FI's share of copper and gold sales will exceed 440 million pounds and 840,000 ounces, including sales to our affiliated smelters, approximating or exceeding previous quarterly records." FULL: biz.yahoo.com For reference FCX did 336,000 in Q1 and 444,000 in Q2 for a total of 780,000 for six months. 840,000 for the quarter is amazing and would be a record AFAIK.

To: goldsheet who wrote (89975)	9/25/2002 5:23:09 PM
From: Real Man	Respond to of 116815

XAU got as high as 150 during previous gold booms, within the bear market that started in early 80-s. Thus, in general, there should be more upside potential, after the worst bubble ever. There are other ratios, such as Stock market cap/GDP, which got to 180% in 2000 vs 70% in 1929, which almost tracks Dow/gold, surprisingly. The key reason for gold underperformance is the treasury market and the dollar. Gold won't shine until people actually start shifting assets into it. But when they do, the wildest predictions for POG may very well materialize. Certainly, investment demand will then determine world gold demand, for the most part. We have not seen that happening yet. What's happening now seems to be the proverbial "wall of worry". That is, if the gold bull has started, which is likely, IMHO. Then we have seen only the first tiny stage of it in terms of gold price. Perhaps, in November or January the current correction within the bullish trend will end. Maybe even now. The first support for hui is a retest of 50 DMA, around 122, which is also p&f point, a confirmation of breakout. I'm still wondering if the bullion banks are shorting gold futures naked, i.e., not to offset their long forwards position. Should they be called the "commercials" or "large specs" then? Kind of strange to see gold miners covering hedges giving rise to 20-25% of gold demand, while CFTC reports showing commercials shorting futures.