I have not been following politics much, how do the polls look as far as keeping the House, or possibly making a gains in the Senate?
nytimes.com
G.O.P. Is Seen Ahead by Nose in House Races
By ADAM CLYMER
WASHINGTON, Sept. 26 — With six weeks to go, Republicans appear to hold a slight edge in this year's fight for control of the House, according to interviews with politicians and analysts around the country and examinations of local polls.
Republicans have about 10 more seats safely in their hands than the Democrats do. So even if they won fewer than half of the approximately 40 races that are truly competitive, they could still keep control of the House. That unusually small number of competitive districts means that the Democrats have fewer opportunities to achieve the net gain of seven seats they need to wrest control.
Beyond that, the Democrats have failed so far to realize their hopes of galvanizing voters nationally with domestic issues like the sluggish economy, Social Security or corporate corruption, perhaps because of the dominance of news about Iraq.
The Democrats' distress over that issue burst into the open on Wednesday when the Senate majority leader, Tom Daschle, rebuked President Bush, demanding an apology for a remark that Democrats complained had impugned their commitment to the nation's security.
While members of each party were admonishing the other to keep partisan politics out of discussions about a possible war, Iraq is emerging in polls as a critical issue. Although they are working carefully not to be seen as exploiting it, Republican leaders hope that President Bush's rising approval ratings will provide the coattails for their candidates that most recent presidents have lacked.
The campaign is by no means over. Enough seats are still in play so that the Democrats could recapture the speaker's chair they lost in 1994 for the first time in 40 years — and the sluggish economy looms over most of them.
Still, the Democrats would have to win two-thirds to three-fourths of those competitive seats to take control, a task compared to "filling an inside straight" by Charles Cook, editor of the influential, nonpartisan Cook Political Report. He recalled that the Democrats did just that in the Senate races in 2000, capturing almost all the closest races.
Another Washington analyst, Stuart Rothenberg, said, "If the election were held today, I think the Republicans would probably pick up a few seats." Only once since 1934 has a president's party gained House seats in a midterm election. The Democrats did in 1998.
This year's narrowed field emphasizes the importance of every race, and there are some districts where incumbents seem to have no better than an even chance of holding onto their seats. One is Minnesota's Second District, where Representative Bill Luther, a Democrat, is struggling to retain his seat against John Kline, a Republican whose campaign has brought President Bush and his father in to raise money. Another is Maryland's Eighth District, where the Republican incumbent, Constance A. Morella, faces State Senator Chris Van Hollen.
Almost all the campaign advertisements from both parties focus on domestic issues, ones that pollsters think will emphasize differences between candidates in particular districts.. As Representative Thomas M. Davis III of Virginia, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, observed: "There is no one overriding issue. There is a matrix of issues."
So the focus is district by district. Republicans say that Mr. Luther is the most vulnerable Democrat not facing another incumbent. He and Mr. Kline are running against each other for the third straight election, and they greeted hundreds of voters last weekend in New Prague, a swing voter town settled by Czechs in the late 1800's (but pronounced `Praig") that wascelebrating its — annual Dozinky (harvest) parade.
Mr. Luther beat Mr. Kline by 5,440 votes two years ago, but judicial redistricting has put him into a district slightly more Republican. President Bush carried the old district with 48 percent of the vote, as Mr. Luther won with 50 percent. The new district voted 51 percent for Mr. Bush.
Just as Republicans held onto the House two years ago with a firewall that enabled them to stem their net losses by winning some Democratic seats, they count on similar victories this fall to hold the House and perhaps increase their current 13-seat majority. (There are 223 Republicans, 209 Democrats, one independent who votes with Democrats, and two vacancies.)
So if imperiled Republicans like Mrs. Morella or Representatives Jim Leach of Iowa and Anne M. Northup of Kentucky lose, Republicans expect to compensate by defeating Democrats like Mr. Luther, Earl Pomeroy in North Dakota and Chet Edwards in Texas, while taking seats vacated by veteran Democrats in Indiana and Maine.
Mr. Davis, whose national Republican committee plans to spend $80 million helping candidates, argues that issues like Iraq, homeland security and defense spending are drowning out any Democratic efforts to make the economy or Social Security an effective issue and "give them a wind at their backs."
Consequently, he said, "If we break even in the tossups, we gain seats."
Representative Nita M. Lowey of New York, his Democratic counterpart, disagrees. "We're feeling very, very strong," she said, planning to spend $35 million. She said that Democrats could hold their own on issues like Iraq and still stress domestic issues... |
