To: Maurice Winn who wrote (5284 ) 9/28/2002 10:06:23 PM From: waitwatchwander Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 12231 AT&T exec says 3G nets cost less than 802.11 WLANs commsdesign.com By Rick Merritt EE Times September 27, 2002 (3:46 p.m. EST) SAN JOSE, Calif. — Despite the industry slowdown and an unprecedented combination of new technologies, 3G cellular still holds great promise and will deliver wireless data more be a more cost-effectively than 802.11 wireless LANs, said Umesh Amin, director of new technologies and planning for AT&T Wireless, in a keynote speech at the Communications Design Conference here Wednesday (Sept. 25). The carrier is on track to roll out its nationwide 2.5G services this year and to start its first 3G trial in Dallas next year, Amin said. "I feel 802.11 still has a long way to go to meet the needs of the mobile professional," Amin said. "As for costs, it's true 802.11 capital expense is very low, but you also have to look at the operational expense." For example, Amin said that AT&T's 3G network could deliver wireless data to a two mile radius in and around the Seattle-Tacoma airport using a single macrocell costing about $2 million and a few T1 lines costing about $1,500. "I challenge you to do the math for 802.11, and you still won't have as wide a coverage radius," Amin said. AT&T Wireless will not try to become an operator of so-called 802.11 hot spots, but it will work with WLAN carriers to deliver services that work with 3G, he said. The carrier is now 80 percent finished with its deployment of a GSM/GPRS overlay to its network and plans to start an upgrade to Edge in 2003. GPRS should offer wireless data users an average of 25 kbits/second for Web browsing while Edge could bump that up to about 90 kbits/s in terms of effective usable bandwidth, he said. AT&T has put in more than 100 UMTS cell sites in the Dallas area in the 1,900-MHz spectrum as it prepares to start its first trial of wideband CDMA early next year. "Where the market demand exists we will overlay UMTS on our Edge networks," he said. Plenty of challenges lay ahead to the broader market's 3G rollout, Amin said. Operators face an unprecedented convergence of new networks, devices, operating systems, applications and services as well as various messaging and digital rights management services that don't interoperate. A wide range of new devices are coming to market, including some of the first Java phones that AT&T will use later this year on its network. Network-assisted GPS and Bluetooth functions are quickly being integrated into cellular chip sets, he said. And despite the fact that new computing and imaging features — including color screens and CMOS sensors — are being added to phones, the devices will need to maintain their existing form factor of about 100 cc in volume and 90 grams in weight, Amin said. Perhaps the biggest challenge for 3G is the establishment of a new value chain where all the partners are adequately compensated — a particularly tricky undertaking given the flat-rate and free nature of many Internet services. "There has been tremendous value erosion. One of the biggest challenges for operators is finding a financially viable model," Amin said. Beyond the hurdles, the promise of wireless data is great, he said, quoting estimates of a wireless data market that could reach from $14 billion to $22 billion in 2005, up from $200 million today.