It's a demonstrable fact that there are plenty of Democrats and Republicans who think the same as I do. Hell, people all over the world doubt that Iraq is a threat.
No doubt. Denial is a river running through Egypt.
You'll notice, nonetheless, that the British assessment is not so sanguine and that their PM is making his own political life very difficult by insisting Iraq is a threat. Pols don't do this unless they have extremely strong conviction because it shortens their careers.
By the way this story absolutely does illustrate my conviction that sanctions are usually ineffective, if not counter-productive.
nationalpost.com
A furious rush to stockpile tools of war:
Bombs, missiles, toxins
Peter Goodspeed
National Post
Wednesday, September 25, 2002
<http://media.canada.com/scripts/locate.asp?id=bedd4eed-9a4a-4b3b-815d-5ba552a089ba>
A photograph from the British report shows the al-Rafah liquid-propellant missile test site. The report says a new silo has been built at the facility to test missiles with a range of more than 1,000 kilometres.
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The British intelligence dossier released yesterday to bolster British and U.S. calls for international action against Iraq contains no startling or unexpected disclosures. But it does portray, in devastating detail, Saddam Hussein's menacing and methodical quest for an arsenal of deadly weapons.
The document sets out the case that Iraq has intensified efforts to build biological, chemical and nuclear weapons, and is rushing to expand its range of missiles with the intention of delivering them.
British intelligence officials argue that Iraq has taken advantage of the absence of international weapons inspectors since 1998 to rebuild and expand its arsenal of weapons and they say Iraq has funded its secret weapons program with almost US$3-billion a year in illicit oil sales.
The dossier was produced by the highly secretive Joint Intelligence Committee, which has been providing British governments with sensitive intelligence advice since 1936.
It draws on the combined intelligence resources and analysis of the Secret Intelligence Service, the Government Communications Headquarters, the Security Service and the Defence Intelligence Staff.
In addition, the British information is supplemented with intelligence provided from other "close allies" -- not the least of whom is the United States.
According to the British experts, the most serious threat posed by Iraq is the country's "active, detailed and growing" pursuit of chemical and biological weapons.
British spies conclude Iraq's current military planning specifically envisages the use of chemical and biological weapons, and they argue that Iraq can already deliver chemical and biological agents using an extensive range of artillery shells, free-fall bombs, sprayers and ballistic missiles.
A year ago, British intelligence officials concluded Iraq had retained enough chemical warfare agents, precursors, production equipment and weapons from before the Gulf War to enable it to begin producing significant quantities of mustard gas within weeks and of nerve agent within months.
"These chemical and biological capabilities represented the most immediate threat from Iraqi weapons of mass destruction," the report says.
Iraq has been involved in chemical and biological warfare research for more than 30 years. It operates a well-guarded chemical warfare research centre at Rashad, northeast of Baghdad, that is capable of producing large quantities of mustard gas and nerve gas.
Iraq also operates a plant,which operates as the Iraqi State Establishment for Pesticide Production, capable of producing biological weapons in the desert about 70 kilometres northwest of Baghdad. Another research facility, known as Slaman Pak, is located 35 kilometres south of Baghdad on an isolated bend in the Tigris river.
A wide variety of other civilian facilities have also been taken over and adapted for use in the production, research and development of biological agents, the report says.
Most Iraqi chemical and biological weapons plants that were damaged in the Gulf War or dismantled during the last round of UN weapons inspections have been repaired and rebuilt, the British study says.
By end of the Gulf War, Iraq admitted to having a variety of delivery systems for chemical and biological agents that included more than 16,000 free-fall bombs, more than 110,000 artillery rockets and shells and 50 chemical and 25 biological warheads available for its ballistic missiles.
None of those weapons have ever been accounted for.
Iraq has also admitted to having 360 tonnes of bulk chemical warfare agents, including 1.5 tonnes of VX nerve agent and up to 3,000 tonnes of precursor chemicals.
British intelligence officials say Iraqi biologists have enough growth media culture on hand to produce more than three times the 8,500 litres of anthrax spores that Iraq has already admitted to possessing.
In recent years, the British say, Iraq has retained and expanded its capacity for aerosol dispersal of both chemical and biological agents. Iraqi military officials have sought to convert their L-29 jet trainer aircraft into an unmanned, remote-controlled aircraft capable of delivering chemical and biological agents over large areas, the study says.
Even more threatening is Iraq's development of mobile biological-agent production facilities.
In the past two years, the study says, evidence from Iraqi defectors has indicated the existence of such facilities and recent intelligence has confirmed the development of mobile laboratories.
The mobile biological-warfare laboratories are specifically designed to aid in the country's concealment efforts and to make it harder for enemy planes to eliminate Iraq's biological-warfare targets.
According to the British study, the ultimate authority to use chemical and biological weapons resides with Saddam but recent intelligence also indicates he has delegated this authority to his son Qusai.
Regarding nuclear weapons, the British report argues Iraq retains the expertise and design data needed to continue a nuclear weapons program.
Still, if left alone, with effective international sanctions in place, it might take Iraq up to five years to develop a nuclear weapon on its own, the study says.
"If Iraq obtained fissile material and other essential components from foreign sources, the timeline for production of a nuclear weapon would be shortened and Iraq could produce a nuclear weapon in between one and two years," the report concludes.
That is a more conservative time frame than that given recently by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, which said Iraq could make nuclear weapons "within months" with foreign help.
The evidence that Iraq is trying to rush to build a nuclear bomb is overwhelming.
The British report says in August, 1990, just as Iraq invaded Kuwait, the country undertook a crash program to develop a single nuclear weapon within a year.
Iraq's declared aim was to produce a missile warhead with a 20-kilotonne yield. That would be similar to the nuclear bomb dropped on Nagasaki, Japan, in 1945.
Sidetracked by the Gulf War, international sanctions and UN weapons inspections, Iraq has been unable to proceed rapidly with its nuclear program. It still needs key equipment, including gas centrifuge components and components for the production of fissile material to develop a nuclear bomb.
But since international weapons inspectors left Iraq in 1998, the country has made a concerted effort to acquire dual-use technology and materials with nuclear applications.
British intelligence officials say Iraq has tried to buy "significant quantities of uranium from Africa", but they do not identify the country and do not say whether Iraq was successful.
Iraq has also attempted to buy vacuum pumps for enriching uranium and recently attempted to acquire more than 60,000 specialized aluminum tubes that could be used in the construction of gas centrifuges.
Hand-in-hand with its chemical, biological and nuclear weapons programs, Iraq is said to be working furiously and secretly to expand the range and the payload capabilities of its missiles.
Early this year, the British Joint Intelligence Committee concluded Iraq had begun to develop missiles with a range of over 1,000 kilometres. That would give Iraq the ability to hit Israel or Cyprus, where Britain has military bases, with a variety of warheads.
British experts also say Iraq still has up to 20 long-range al-Hussein missiles left over from the Gulf War, which it managed to hide from UN weapons inspectors.
Iraq is also developing a longer-range version of the al-Hussein that could reach as far as Oman, the Iran-Afghanistan border and most of Turkey.
The British report says Iraq has rebuilt much of its missile production infrastructure, which was destroyed in the Gulf War and in Operation Desert Fox in 1998.
Recently, Iraq deployed the shorter-ranged al-Samoud liquid-propellant missile and it has used the absence of weapons inspectors to work on extending that missile's range to at least 200 kilometres.
Under the terms of the Gulf War ceasefire, Iraq is not allowed to have any missiles with a range of more than 150 kilometres.
The British report says international sanctions may help thwart Iraq's missile development program, but it adds, even if sanctions remain, Iraq might achieve a missile capability of over 1,000 kilometres within five years.
Finally, the study warns Iraq's weapons program is dangerous because Saddam Hussein is dangerous.
"The threat from Iraq does not depend solely on the capabilities we have described," the report says. "It arises also because of the violent and aggressive nature of Saddam Hussein's regime. His record of internal repression and external aggression gives rise to unique concerns about the threat he poses."
nationalpost.com
Iraq's deadliest weapons ready in 45 minutes: Blair
Program 'up and running'
Peter Goodspeed
National Post, with files from news services
Wednesday, September 25, 2002
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In an unprecedented move, the British Prime Minister released a 50-page summary of his government's top intelligence on Iraq yesterday, warning that Saddam Hussein could deploy chemical and biological weapons on just 45 minutes' notice.
With protesters singing Give Peace a Chance outside the British Parliament, and his own party sharply divided, Tony Blair bluntly stated the Iraqi President's push to dominate the Middle East with weapons of mass destruction is "up and running."
"In recent months, I have been increasingly alarmed by the evidence from inside Iraq that despite sanctions, despite the damage done to his capability in the past, despite the UN Security Council resolutions expressly outlawing it, and despite his denials, Saddam Hussein is continuing to develop weapons of mass destruction. And with them the ability to inflict real damage upon the region, and the stability of the world," Mr. Blair said.
The report concludes Iraq has military plans for the use of chemical and biological weapons, has tried to acquire "significant quantities" of uranium from Africa and has extended the range of its ballistic missiles.
"[Saddam's] weapons of mass destruction program is active, detailed and growing," Mr. Blair told an emergency debate in the British House of Commons. "The policy of containment is not working. The WMD [weapons of mass destruction] program is not shut down. It is up and running now."
British intelligence experts say Iraq has significant quantities of chemical and biological weapons and has continued to produce them since Iraq expelled international weapons inspectors in 1998. |
