Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockman_scott who wrote (7434)	9/26/2002 2:03:40 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 89467

Cramer screams implicitly for a Fed rate cut but his knowledge of currencies might be severely lacking here a rate cut would exacerbate the differential between EuroCB rates at 3.25% and USFed rates at 1.6% the dollar is hanging by threads imho a rate cut would usher in the next leg down for US$ last spring I mentioned repeatedly that Greenspam is in an interest rate trap many times came the explanation keep rates steady ==> watch economy slide to recession lower rates ==> watch dollar slide, import prices rise, commodities rise, gold rise, inflation return, stock market slide, and eventually bond yields reverse and rise NOW WE ARE SEEING PRECISELY WHAT I DESCRIBED IN THE TRAP many investors are wondering why Greeny doesnt lower rates because of the second big big big unspoken risk we saw the effect this spring and early summer of a declining dollar - foreign exporters saw their margins erode, with some import prices rising - gold rose strongly - CPI ticked up slightly, esp import prices (5% annualized) - stocks fell thru key support levels - bonds rallied to bubblicious levels, now vulnerable the risks of a resumption in the USdollar decline are not immediately front & center in the press/media coverage they should be, because that is why the Fed stayed put instead the press/media reported as wanting to retain limited ammunition for when the economy weakened further, to react to a crisis that might unfold but to me, lies and deception continue instead of citing risks of dollar deline resumption, the Fed reiterated that the US Economy was in recovery mode with some areas of strength (and of course many areas of weakness) the Fed GreenScrotum messages flies in the face of all the corporate forward guidance the USGovt key econ data now flies in the face of many sector corporate forward guidance so I conclude that the Fed is NOT citing currency risk (dollar) and instead promoting a distorted message of economic strength when the real story is of worsening erosion in economic strength / jim