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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mt_mike who wrote (7456)	9/26/2002 2:46:33 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 89467

Mike, I am certain we get asset deflation either way if Fed GreenMan cuts rates, we get 2-3 weeks of relief in stocks then sheer panic will ensue just like in 1931 after empty rate cuts it didnt mean squat on corporate earnings front, PERIOD my firm's co-tenant just died as a firm, 350 jobs gone offering lower rates wont help bring his clients back from the status of DEAD & BURIED lower rates only offer more false hope, and bigger bizarre distorted bubbles from extreme imbalances if he cuts rates, then dollar impact more quickly and price inflation realized more significantly either way, stocks are going down hard, maybe gradually though if no rate cut, then stocks bleed from zero earnings if rate cut, then after initial run, a severe dollar decline, taking entire equity markets down, AND MAYBE BONDS DOWN TOO (HIGHER RATES) if GreenSheiss accurately assesses that his low rates have encouraged and built a new upper level to the Real Estate and associated MBS bond market, then he might weigh that as a greater risk for its unwinding dismantlement I think he is well aware, since FannyMae lives next door to the Fed, and JPMorgo is across the street, and MortgInsurers are down the hall I honestly believe the greater risk is with a rate cut with no rate cut, we can cling to the misplaced hope that the economy will recover from all this monetary expansion and low rate environment how long? dunno... probably not more than a couple more months I think both policies fail to revive the economy it is too late in the liquidation stage, too much momentum I harbor strange notions that GreenTurd is increasingly aware of his disastrous bubbles he realizes that real estate holds much of the economy together now and reversing property values would unglue the entire economy with 10-20x the impact of the stock market bust he must be well aware that if rates go too low, then a systemic risk spreads to the Treasury market if Trez yields go too low, then foreigners just wont finance our $2-3 Billion/day needs !!! good to hear from your ugly face, Mikey you been gone for a long time, DudeMan / jim