Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (61447)	9/26/2002 4:00:51 PM
From: kvkkc1	Respond to of 77400

Don't be fooled that they'll be able to continue that, given the fact we were in a recession in that comparison period last year. Given the accuracy of gov't numbers, I wouldn't doubt we're still in one.

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (61447)	9/27/2002 10:24:41 AM
From: Stock Farmer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

Lizzie, for as long as he's been alive, my son has grown by at least 15% in height each year. If he keeps up at this rate he will be 15 feet tall by the time he graduates college. Easy. Do you suggest I should be certain of him earning a basketball scholarship? 15% of Cisco now is bigger than Cisco was in 1995. In other words, every year Cisco must find and digest a new Cisco in order to grow. And every year that gets harder and harder to do. Next year they'll have to absorb a '96 Cisco. And so on. Look around: where are the next ten '95-sized Ciscos that Cisco needs to digest over the next ten years? Teeny little Anandimos don't cut the mustard. Not impossible, just harder. And either growth or profitability suffer. Network effects and inherrent instabilities take their toll. Inevitably. When do you suspect Cisco will have 100B$ worth of revenue? How long before it has 10 Billion shares? And then how long before it is being cited as a big, bloated beurocracy? How long before the "legacy" of its products is preventing it from nimble acquisition of new markets? How long before the intrigue and politics dominate the court? IMHO the writing is already on the wall. Please do not mistake what I say. There is no doubt in my mind that Cisco will be a huge company. Much larger and more important economically than it is today. It is entirely likely that it will eclipse IBM in the technological constellation. But these are all qualitative statements. When you plant some numbers behind your assertions, and roll up your sleeves and do the sums and subtract the share buybacks and divide by the number of shares... well then we can have a productive discussion about how much the company is worth PER SHARE. Astronomically large divided by astronomically large is still unity. If we are going to talk stock PRICE then it is important to be quantitative. Handwaving arguments of price increase because of revenue growth are what shills and touts use to part fools with their money. Barnum's Corrolary: Some of the people aren't fooled all of the time. John