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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: isopatch who wrote (19586)	9/27/2002 4:51:54 PM
From: longdong_63	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

iso..."Seems gold gets slammed a week to 10 days after almost every such major financial pow wow."....interesting. Thanks.

To: isopatch who wrote (19586)	9/27/2002 7:33:34 PM
From: jimsioi	Respond to of 36161

What worries me about Gold and its miners. Reference the latest COTS, heavy Commercial shorting and smaller traders ramping up longs to a ratio 5.5::1 suggests to me that we've got trouble, or at least did at $325. Add that to Gold's weak performance today in the face of a 300 point fall in the DOW and the HUI's still unconvincing bounce from 120 to its hourly downtrend at 127, closing less than vigorously, suggests the buyers have bought and some pretty intent people are selling. ABX's poor earnings may be preview of things to come for others in the group. The PE and Cash Flow multiples on the Western Hemisphere companies are way out of line with a market demand for more conservative ratios. Taking the above together, coupling it with a weak seasonal for October, and I can foresee a scenario in which Gold drifts sideways to down between 323 and 310 during next month, as the dollar stays strong prior to and going into an expected quick and successful war with Iraq, and the stock market swoons putting pressure on all equities. During such time miners come out with earning that make investors realize that $400 gold is needed to render earnings ratios in a more conservative 20 times earnings and 5-8 times cash flow range, resulting in their continued under performance to Gold during October. What then becomes of Gold and miners if the war is quick and the stock market rallies briskly is such an event?. Add a poor reception to the South African government's mining initiative and there's trouble for the reasonably value miner securities with gearing to a gold price rise. For Gold to rise over $330 and stay there, the dollar has to fall hard and bonds have to turn down due to lost faith stemming from a derivative crisis and or rising concerns over deficits. Nothing else has done it. A failed war effort or prolonged excursion will fit in with what would be negative for bonds, in my opinion. Otherwise the hope for alternative is yet another reason why getting over $330 will be postponed. Ownership of miners needs to be carefully accessed in view of the prospect they may not go up until they have demonstrated earnings growth and yet worse geopolitically and economically developments occur, as they do carry risk.. Not pretty prospect, admittedly. Looking at the monthly HUI chart is helpful; I for one don't do it very often. Upon doing so the preconditioned bullish mine set is for a moment turned off by its being viewed, and one can see that if a normal trading pattern were to follow this month's ugly reversal that down to the lower 100s for the HUI is well within the realms of possible expectations. A pennant formation taking shape has bounds for next month of 130 and 120. Monthly HUI stockcharts.com[h,a]mbcayiay[de][pc4!f][vc60][iut!Ud20!Uya7,14,28!Ub14!Lb14!Lh14,3!Ll14!Ld20!Lya7,14,28]&pref=G Daily View stockcharts.com[h,a]dbcayiay[db][pc50!c100!h.02,.20!f][vc60][iut!Ud20!Uya7,14,28!Ub14!Lb14!Lh14,3!Ll14!Ld20!Lya7,14,28]&pref=G That's the bearish case..now off my chest….others can handle the bullish call and do well. There were some positives in the action of technical indicators Thursday and Friday; that should be said, and my gosh there should have been given the and world economic back drop. The subject of another post. jims101

To: isopatch who wrote (19586)	9/27/2002 7:35:22 PM
From: jimsioi	Respond to of 36161

Isopatch, when the IMF meets... Wasn't aware that the IMF was having a special meeting or a meeting....fits. Working overtime to protect their own.