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To: Boplicity who wrote (9188)	9/28/2002 11:50:51 AM
From: Sig	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13815

IMO. one more dip to come- probably by end of year. In 1996 the bears began to come on the air and predict an end to the bull run. After the third failed bear rally in Oct of 1998 they gave up and the bulls went on up for another 2 years Now we have had in two years 3 failed bull rallies on the way down but the bull have not yet capitulated. I predict one more sharp dip followed by semi-recovery and several failed bear rallys before they finally give up in disgust and let the market stabilize. finance.yahoo.com^DJI&d=c&k=c1&c=^ixic&a=v&p=s&t=5y&l=off&z=m&q=l The huge trading volumes today are eating up the total value of assets in equities so there has to be more money poured in by investors today than in the past to make this market move up. Sig FWIW.

To: Boplicity who wrote (9188)	9/29/2002 12:47:08 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13815

get ready within 3-6 weeks for Vicious Cycle next downleg weakening USDollar with crumbling fundamentals after a little more dropping yield on the TENyr, rising rates Brazil elects socialist who moves to default on $400B in debt collapsing JPMorgo from capital reqmt shortfall and ensuing liquidations possible (no, likely) derivative accident with JPM in center rising federal deficits trade gap not coming down much at all, despite lower dollar end of economy running on fumes from REFI cashouts household debt assumption continues to outpace income growth accelerating bankruptcies and job layoffs new lows on major stock indexes weakening USDollar further, and repeat cycle we are about to repeat what happened in spring/summer prepare for one Mother of a Perfect Storm it will only end with action taken to save the USDollar few seem to believe the currency storm might resume show me a single piece of data that indicates the US economic fundamentals have reacted and improved with the lower dollar valuation unfortunately, the dollar has rebounded enough to render much of the effects as meaningful and substantive most are watching the Euro as the principal continent beneficiary from dollar adjustment but the severe imbalance is with Asian currencies watch the direction of the trade drain it is Japan and China, plus PacRim Tigers watch the direction of the USTrez financing it is again Japan, China, and most of Asia the JYen has gone from 124 in spring to 115 in June now back to 123 again, ergo no change to help trade gap Japan has now embarked on very serious MONETIZATION of stock market Nikkei holdings held by biggest banks thus the accelerated debasement in the JYen recently expect for the USGovt to monetize soon also I anticipate the effort to fund growing Trez debt and S&P baskets the effect on the dollar valuation will be dire for 30 years the USGovt has been defying the Laws of Economics and Currency now is time for THE REVENGE OF GOLD gold's role is only murky with trade balance control gold's primary role is politically circumvented totally, with currency control a downward spiral is coming very soon it wont be stopped until the dollar is fixed structurally the scarey part of all this mess is that history has been revised on the Great Depression causes, whereby causes have been attributed to insufficient liquidity provided by bankers, together with unfortunate slowness in dropping rates but you cannot fix a system that is suffering from an end chapter supercycle excess of credit bloat suffocation problem, by providing it evermore credit since Jan2001 we have seen a 40% rise in the US money supply that is effing staggggggggering, with no effect except, of course, avoidance of economic collapse next up: downward spiral no place for denial here just thought I would drop by and dismiss unwarranted optimism how you been, BoPeep? / jim