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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (61465)	9/28/2002 4:50:49 PM
From: RetiredNow	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 77399

Mucho, I hear a lot of people say that there HAS to be a complete lack of interest in stocks again before we see a bottom in equities and a bull market can start. From where did this assumption arise? I just think it's another one of those "givens" that Wall Street types spout that sounds like a well known fact, but has little basis in sound logic.

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (61465)	9/28/2002 8:09:19 PM
From: Stock Farmer	Respond to of 77399

Mucho, much of what you say makes sense. But we need to be careful against adopting too pessimistic a stance. Yes, it will be a long time before we see a bull run like the last decade. That's for sure. And indeed it seems like we are following the script that ushered in the dirty thirties. At least through the first four acts. It is certainly true that "investors" who bought and held had their heads (and shoulders?) handed to them to hold too. A very distressing time to live through. Those who bought in '28 and held all the way through rightfully despaired of earning a profit in the market in their lifetime. Many died of old age before reaching break even. We see similar signs today. Many who are grimly clutching their shares and uttering the mantra of "LTB&H" are slowly being twisted into humorless and bitter cynics. So sad to see. The good news is that I don't think they'll see more than another 30-40% erosion in their positions from here. On average, that is. And then it will start to get better. That's what happened in the 30's, and what is likely to happen now. We see this beginning, one only has to peruse various backwaters of SI. But not everyone fell into the same boat then, and not all will suffer similarly this time too. For when we measure returns in the market from when the calm arived, then they were indeed reasonable. Oh, they were not outrageous returns. Certainly not the stuff that causes publishers to cram bookstores with pictures of the latest air-brushed guru. But reasonable, I think. So yes, those who are buying or holding now are likely to despair of ever seeing much profit over the long term. Those who sell now and use the proceeds to buy later are likely to perform reasonably. And those of us sitting on the sidelines will have the greatest opportunity of all. I suspect many of us will miss this opportunity as it passes however. If we are not careful and very very observant. Based on what I see now, I suspect it is not that far into the future. Perhaps 6-14 months away. I don't think it has passed yet because I don't see the clash of sentiment and reason that marks such major turning points. Many folks I know are sitting waiting... and the number of people doing so is rising. For there is growing understanding that there's more profit in cheap shares than in expensive ones. And if merely waiting produces cheaper shares, then they are made even cheaper by the risk free rate of return that unemployed cash can attract. And I do expect the market will one day produce good returns. For those who are both prudent and patient. John

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (61465)	9/30/2002 10:04:43 PM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77399

Mucho, have you read Harry Dents, 'Roaring 2000. If what he says is correct then your assumption of the market not recovering for ten years must be projected out to 20 years since the baby boomers will be reitring and drawing cash out of the market. Additionally, we will have to assume that the consumer (individual and organizations) will continue not buying the advancements in technology, biogenetics, fues cell cars, HDTV liquid plasma screen TV's and other items which have not even been developed at this time. One disturbing news to me today was the cutting back of R % D by CSCO and others. But, CSCO has the cash to buy other small cap companies who are doing the research in buy outs. Just my opinion. Paul