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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jimsioi who wrote (19608)	9/28/2002 2:07:56 PM
From: Louis V. Lambrecht	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36161

jim = I have been observing contrarian indicators or "smart money" or sentiments indicators for a while. I observed that these indicators can be explained with accuracy some months or years after the facts. I start to put more importance in the open interest. For example: I don't care of P/C ratios anylonger. OEX P/C ratios are widely followed, but I find no way to compare a ratio when open interest can vary from 500K (as it did in August) to the usual 40-50K. Same for the CoTs. Net positions at 100K O/I on the gold has not the same significance as the same "commercial" net short on >200K O/I. I expect a certain mass of positions to be rolled over year over year over year. If I could determine that mass, I could have a better indication of the trend in new positions. For the gold o/i, I also am amazed with the high "non-reportable" position, 28% of all long positions. Could it be that large US commercial shorts would have hedged long positions in rhe British Isle or the Caymans? Me and my other shizophrenic partners think so. What we currently see in the CoT reports are large holders covering their asses. Letting the US part in a loosing strike (they don't care, that is the FED syndicate) while keeping their winning assets safe offshore. We can be wrong also off course. I still don't know whre I can find a similar CoT report for the London market. Any help welcome. Remains, IMVHO, that any discussion on CoTs without comparison numbers from the London market is SOB. I do not, and will never trade, on COMEX data. AFAIK, futures and options for this quarter rolled over Friday on Londan, as oppsosed to some weeks before on the COMEX. Again, I have no single source to check for this.