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Strategies & Market Trends : Buffettology -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Shane M who wrote (3073)	9/28/2002 12:47:53 PM
From: Larry S.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4691

I'd like to ask the thread a general question. What do folks think would happen to the value of BRK.a and BRK.b if Buffett were to die? How much of a ""Buffett premium is built into the stocks? What would the succession be? thanks. larry

To: Shane M who wrote (3073)	9/28/2002 2:23:59 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4691

Retail is a very broad topic (as evidenced by the companies in your post). For some retail stocks, I'm not sure consumer confidence numbers are meaningful. Especially companies that cater to teenagers. They get money, they buy. (Or so the stereotype leads me to believe.) I don't know how to tie retail to Buffett, but we know he or his surrogate have bought retail stocks before (e.g. JNY), so retail is a decent topic for discussion here. As regards the stocks you mentioned, I can't easily figure if these companies are a growth play and if so, what's an appropriate price for an investor to pay for them. They look too expensive for me as value buys. I own a slew of retail stocks. Right now this slew seems to have slain me. Looking through my list, I'd guess the best business reports are coming from SHRP. My pick this morning (my perspective changes frequently) for most-undervalued-with-the-best-guess-for-recovery-if-management-can-catch-the-right-fashion that I have is GADZ. I have several others also that have been mentioned on Value thread as alleged values: SKX, PERY, a couple of cigar butts, a couple of net-nets and a couple of 2nd rate and regional department store chains. My most recent buy, retail, (and only a tiny, exploratory position) is what I'll call retail adjacent: retail servicer NCR. I'm considering adding MAY and SYM to my watch list. As for sales, I've been trimming my position in ZQK. finance.yahoo.com fwiw, Paul Senior

To: Shane M who wrote (3073)	9/28/2002 3:54:20 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4691

Shane, Like Paul said, it is unclear how much retail belongs to Buffettology. There is some brand identity, but not necessarily a high moat. New companies may compete on brand or price in the same category and win the business from established players. Also there is a question of fashion, which is fickle, so it is difficult to expect any players last for 10 years. Having said that, I presently own ANF and JNY. AEOS and ANF are in my buy territory. Others are not. Here are my numbers from Buffettology spreadsheet, based on yesterday's market caps: AEOS - 18% ROE, 18% expected annualized return ANF - 25% ROE, 21% expected annualized return BBBY - 20% ROE, 5% expected annualized return JNY - 15% ROE, 14% expected annualized return LIZ - 16% ROE, 12% expected annualized return I have not recently looked at BBY, COLM, HD, LTD, but I will let you know if I do. Jurgis