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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (5682)	9/28/2002 12:27:56 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95546

FTT: the PC I see PC growth driven by hardware rather than the traditional software. 1. Form factor - the desk top is giving way to the laptop and this in turn will share space with the hand held. Both are mobile and require wireless. The hand held will require innovative ways to provide satisfactory data input and display. 2. Multi function - a PC is also a phone, a DVD player (wireless connections to TV monitors), a digital camera, a digital video camera, etc. People will have reason to buy "standalone" functions, but the PC will provide basic functionality in each area and it will "bundle" the cost. 3. Cost - I see a $50 CPU and $25 of DRAM as the backbone of these ubiquitous mobile PCs. Internet, printing, scanning, usual business and personal productivity software, and most games will naturally be supported. In summary, the PC will be the ultimate consumer electronic device. Using te MSFT model, it will continuously "bundle" the functions of other consumer electronic devices. It will be small, cheap, and mobile.

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (5682)	9/28/2002 2:08:59 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95546

Cary, you may want to look not only at the size of a market for chips, but also at each segment expected gowth rate. Take for instance consumer products and PC, my guess is that in 1990, PC were close to 70% of total chips shipment while consumer products were probably at around 12%, the growth rate may indicate (for the chip companies) which might have more than average growth ahead. Of course, if our interest is only in the semi equip sector, then looking at the boggest chunk, indeed makes a lot of sense. Zeev

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (5682)	9/29/2002 4:48:31 PM
From: w0z	Respond to of 95546

Recently, there has been much conjecture about the growth rates of PCs moving forward and its effect on semi and semi equip growth. Intel sees no industry rebound until firms recover Sunday September 29, 11:49 AM EDT DUBAI, Sept 29 (Reuters) - Intel Corp (INTC) Chief Executive Craig Barrett said on Sunday he did not expect a real turnaround in computer sales until companies returned to profitability and started spending on technology. "I expect some uptake in (personal) computer buying during the holidays but I don't know how strong," Barrett told a news conference in Dubai emirate in the United Arab Emirates. "(But) a turnaround will happen when there is corporate purchases of IT infrastructure and that cannot happen until there is corporate profitability in the United States, Japan and Western Europe...It is very difficult to predict when that will happen." Intel's core business is its microprocessors and roughly 80 percent of the company's revenue comes from the PC industry. Market researcher International Data Corp has cut its forecast for worldwide PC sales growth in 2002 to 1.1 percent from 4.7 percent, and forecast that the holiday season would be about flat with last year. Barrett said he expected Intel, the world's largest semiconductor maker, to emerge stronger from what he described as the most dramatic recession for the IT industry in 10 years. "Absolutely yes. We expect to emerge stronger than we went in. We are still profitable and we are still investing in research and development and in capital investment," he said. Intel has tightened its revenue forecast for the third quarter to $6.3 billion to $6.7 billion from an initial estimate of $6.3 billion to $6.9 billion, saying sales would be "slightly below the mid-point" of the previous range. Spending on research and development was unchanged at $4.0 billion this year. ©2002 Reuters Limited. money.iwon.com