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To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (9200)9/28/2002 3:05:02 PM
From: im a survivor  Respond to of 13815
 
I wish I had never sold my dell......and my qcom......and my ibm....and my msft.....and my csco.....and.......



To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (9200)9/28/2002 6:29:48 PM
From: Sig  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 13815
 
<<<Re:LTBH, I own some cisco in my full service brokerage acct, that one has become a ltbh for me. The strange
thing is cisco took their lumps early on, collasing totally in 91- hovering around 15 at the beginning of the year and
oscillating between 11-15 in the 2002 bear. Not too bad under the circumstances. It is amazing watching cisco
completely kill any competition they once had in this recession, along with Dell and a very few others. I'll bet these
turn out to be similar to the IBM experience in the 70s/80s - IBM once a nifty fifty crashed in the 70s bear but
went back to his old highs and beyond in the 80s. Thats cisco, total dominance looks like Dell too, imo.
>>>

Its a rotten world. In the '50's my Dad,a commercial fisherman at Neah Bay, had a sign in the kitchen
"All fishermen are liars, except you and me- and I am not too sure about you"
And the tales were always of the "good old days"
Like -"you should have been here in 1949, we had lots of salmon, now the trawlers are catching them all.
Now the government has restricted the fishing to (so many days..)" and the fish are small
Good old days are everywhere- its tradition
From the Boston whalers of the 1880's, the rubber tree plantations, the Gold in Mexico and Peru.
The early railroads, De Beers diamond mines
At this time, then, nobody trusts anyone in the market. Not the funds not the brokers, not the
"earnings" reports, not the company executives or their expectations, not even the SEC reporting rules.
Now the only way that the telecom industry can make money is by charging the consumer more and more
for the phones and cable service. ( to pay for Csco and Jnpr gear they buy)
AOL tried that, ( raising the rate by $2 /month) and ran in to a brick wall when MSN would not go along with it.
The AOL story is simple, spend money to gain and control the market and then raise the charges when you have a near monopoly. Its not going to work. The economy is down and incomes are or will be decreasing
I dont know much about Csco, but they do seem to have a reputation for a quality product and reliable
business dealings, so would expect telecoms to gravitate toward their products.
They tend to buy other companies to get the latest technology and now they have a great opportunity
to do more of the same, picking up some companies heading for bankrupsy. Interesting Hmmmm, guess if I owned Csco I would keep it. And hope the economy improves.
Dell of course, is on a roll ( as always) should have great back to school and Christmas season, followed by replacement of aging or obsolete computers in industry
So now we have the "good old days" of the bubble. and WE WUZ THERE - which is a pretty good start
The chart show a steep almost interrupted upward slope. Trust me when I say , its does not appear that way when you are in the middle of the action. Dell dropped by 2/3's in 1995 period.
You need true confidence to hold thru that.
Sig (out of words)