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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alastair McIntosh who wrote (5694)	9/28/2002 6:03:41 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95530

RE: ""next year" is important to investors..." I agree. I just think that "uncertainty" rather than any particular forecast is much closer to what we can "see" of next year. RE: "Capital equipment costs will continue to decline as a fraction of IC revenues." One would hope that they would decline or stay about the same once they reach a reasonable level. I think your "will continue" is certainly not obvious and probably needs some logical support or justification. RE: "IC unit revenues (ASP's) are declining so that the SCE suppliers are getting a smaller piece of a smaller pie." The first half "IC unit revenues (ASP's) are declining" is the normal situation and the desired one. The second half, the "smaller pie" is not normal and you need to explain why you believe it represents the future. RE: "the mess we are in" I am referring to what I call the "bubble" aftermath. The technology markets are adjusting to a period of gross distortion which resulted in large overcapacity and unused inventory. RE: "I don't think the SCE sector will return to the growth rates it once enjoyed." Neither of us is certain about future growth rates. I still don't understand why you think rates will slow significantly. RE: "You also appear to have the ability to accept significant portfolio declines because you have sufficient confidence in the long term outcome." My philosophy is buy low, sell high, but you can't buy at the bottom or sell at the top. I EXPECT "significant portfolio declines" between buy low and the bottom. My average cost for ASYT was $11 in '98 and it dropped under $6. I sold at $100 in '00 and it went as high as $134. I missed by 50% at the bottom and 34% at the top, both "significant".