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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (5699)	9/28/2002 6:12:50 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 95572

Cary, if we are looking only at the equipment, then total chips shipment may still be the "driver". I think, however, that the average of Capex relative to sales in the industry may have a gradual drop in time. I don't have historical data on the semi-equip/chip shipments, in mid 2000 it got out of hand exceeding I believe 20% or so, and right now my guess is that it got out of hands on the down side, barely making the 6% to 7% level. One of the many reasons I am actually quite bullish on the sector (most have reached my OB's faster than I thought). One need to be careful with those that have special circumstances making them financially vulnerable, like KLIC and VECO and maybe NEWP (the last two having major commitments to "optronics" which may take longer to revive). I still think that AMAT, NVLS, KLAC and even CYMI around current prices are quite attractive. One of my more favored one, is not really a semi-equip (CCMP), but the market "think" of it as one. This one is more of a fast trading vehicle than a very long term investment not for "fainted hearts".. Zeev Zeev