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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: smolejv@gmx.net who wrote (7584)9/29/2002 1:40:57 AM
From: Raymond Duray  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 89467
 
Re: JPM (...think dirty...)

Are you familiar with the Smedley Butler story?



To: smolejv@gmx.net who wrote (7584)9/29/2002 11:42:41 AM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 89467
 
there is little they can do to save JPMorgo, longterm
but plenty shorterm
and some nearterm
shorterm is the PPTeam efforts that would purchase its stock directly, and even assume some of their disastrous hedgebook
but as with most shorterm, try putting fingers in dikes and see if anything changes by tomorrow morning

nearterm is the shotgun Citibank marriage, which would solidify Citi's death (after separation of Travelers unit)

I doubt Citi's mgmt and shholders would tolerate it
it is uncertain as to whether they will be somehow forced to

what concerns me the most is what we dont hear
what we arent aware on known weapons

here is a tidbit that sheds light on Citi during this foreplay period feeling each other out
when Brazil defaults, Citi is on the hook for $11B (biggest among USbanks)
JPMorgo is on the hook for a large amount, but much less
I think I recall the JPM exposure is about $3B
Brazilian default will change the attractiveness of Citi by an unfortunate loss of two of her luscious breasts
since JPMorgo is wellknown for milking assets dry via risky derivatives, those breasts will be shriveled and not much for eye appeal
the lesson learned on past milk runs is that ChaseManhattan has been bled dry dead nada kaput

any marriage will come as Citi endures flat tits from heavier losses, and suffers from a divorce with an estranged Traveler marriage that brought zero synergy on cross-sales

I love to laugh at the SYNERGY stories !!!
TWarner and AOL had none, only sucking dry
Wellfleet and Synoptics (remember Cisco's top rival Wellfleet?)
Compaq and HWP have none, only shared mktshare losses versus Dell
WorldCom and MCI, enough said
Quaker Oats and Snapple, laughter is heard
Daimler Benz and Chrysler, get the barf bag
Digital and Compaq, they needed pall bearers

JPMorgo and Chase Manhattan had none, only an available capital base to exploit and kill

the only synergy I have seen comes in the drug world
with major pharmas sharing the expensive R&D
and in the defense world
with reducing the competition on DODefense bids

when JPM's capital shortfall leads to the beginning of liquidation, the process will not be stoppable, whereby mgmt might lose control
we saw no control with Enron, but they are not HQ'ed in NYCity
Citibank shholders might soon seek court orders to stop any marriage
the WILD CARD is Rubin/SandyW political ties, always uncertain

fwiw, Jim