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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: D. Long who wrote (47880)9/29/2002 6:05:35 AM
From: LindyBill  Respond to of 281500
 
Another good Military Article. From the LA Times.

Pentagon Battles Unknown Preparing for a Toxic War
Military: Despite gains since Gulf War, soldiers fighting in Iraq could be exposed to many agents.
By JOHN HENDREN
TIMES STAFF WRITER

September 29 2002

FT. LEONARD WOOD, Mo. -- Defense strategists have made sweeping advances since the 1991 Persian Gulf War to protect U.S. troops from chemical and biological warfare: intensified training, improved gas masks, cooler and lighter protective suits, and sensors to detect hazardous agents sooner and from greater distances.

Yet the science of defending against such weapons remains in its infancy. As another war looms against Iraq--the only nation known to deploy toxic agents since World War II--even the world's best-trained and -equipped soldiers are vulnerable. The Pentagon has sought to prepare for the worst by sending chemical specialists to the Chemical Defense Training Facility at Ft. Leonard Wood, the only site where actual toxins are used in military training. About 60,000 already have trained at the facility, which expects 4,500 more from all four branches of the armed services this year and 6,000 next year. They, in turn, train their front-line colleagues.

Some recent technological advances hold the prospect of saving hundreds of soldiers' lives. For example, a specially equipped vehicle that during the Gulf War could not identify chemical weapons on contact without forcing soldiers out of its protective hull can now spot a toxic cloud three miles off without stopping.

But for biological weapons, that kind of advance detection remains several years away. The best equipment available today can detect biological agents only half an hour after exposure, though usually in time to treat victims. Even that marks an improvement over 1991, when biological weapons couldn't be detected at all.

More worrisome, this equipment--a two-person lab mounted on a Humvee--can identify only 10 biological agents. (Which 10 is classified information, but likely includes those Iraq is thought to possess--anthrax, botulinum, ricin and aflotoxin--as well as often-mentioned threats such as plague and smallpox.)

Novel biological agents could go undetected, killing or incapacitating soldiers who might not show the effects for hours or even days. Because existing devices search the air, they would not detect if a man infected with smallpox--a kind of walking time bomb--strolled past.

"One of my biggest fears is that there will be something that is totally unknown and unexpected," said Anna Johnson-Winegar, a former United Nations weapons inspector in Iraq and now deputy assistant secretary of Defense for chemical and biological defense.

Lethal agents also could be modified to maximize their effect and make them even harder to spot. VX, for example, could be turned into a nearly undetectable "dusty VX" by impregnating the liquid toxin on a particle of silicone or dust and making it airborne.

"And that's not even going into the whole area of the genetically engineered microorganisms," Johnson-Winegar said. "It's pretty easy to make them antibiotic-resistant or put some type of a coating or shell on them so that our detectors don't work." Knowing which weapons Iraqi President Saddam Hussein has is tricky because of his elaborate security measures and the fact that the technology used to make these weapons can be as simple as a beer-fermenting vat. No weapon inspectors have gone into Iraq since 1998.

What does seem clear is that Hussein is more likely to resort to chemical or biological weapons in a new U.S. attack--a point emphasized by British Prime Minister Tony Blair when he presented a British intelligence dossier against Hussein on Tuesday. During the Gulf War, Hussein was deterred by the expectation that he could lose the war and still retain power as long as he did nothing to provoke an overwhelming response from coalition forces. (Some speculate that Gulf War Syndrome, a malady among returning U.S. troops, was the result of an unknown agent, although none has been found.)

With President Bush insisting on ousting the Iraqi leader this time, Hussein "will not hesitate to use these weapons," says former Iraqi Gen. Najib Salhi, who defected in 1995. Although special operations soldiers likely would be among the first on the ground in an assault on Iraq, military strategists believe Hussein would probably direct chemical and biological attacks at larger fixed targets such as airfields and bases. "Port facilities [and] airfields are always more lucrative to hit because there are more people there," said Gen. Paul V. Hester, commander of Air Force Special Operations Command at Hurlburt Field, Fla.

Iraq has loaded toxic weapons on Scud missiles and, according to U.S. intelligence officials, has equipped unmanned planes with crude spraying devices, though it's not known whether these delivery devices are effective. Even so, the vulnerability is extreme.

In general, chemical weapons such as mustard gas and VX can kill quickly over a limited area but lose their lethality over time and distance. They can be detected in nanoseconds by the right equipment, giving soldiers time to don protective gear.

Sarin, the gas that cultists used to kill 12 and sicken 5,000 in a Tokyo subway in 1995, is lethal in confined spaces but dissipates quickly in the open air. VX can linger in liquid form for days or even weeks, leaving a lethal contact hazard that diverts soldiers from battle to cleanup.

"If I were a bad guy, [VX] would be the chemical agent of choice if I were to hit an airfield ... or a city or a state," said Maj. Gen. John Doesburg, commander of the Soldier & Biological Chemical Command in Aberdeen, Md.

Biological weapons are harder to detect and take days to show their lethal effects. Anthrax is long-lasting and comparatively simple to produce and deliver; it can be made by two people in a crude lab for $2,000. Botulinum, by contrast, is harder to produce and cannot survive long in heat or sunlight. Smallpox takes up to two weeks to kill and can be passed from one person to another unwittingly. "Soldiers will be concerned because you can't see it, you can't touch it, you can't smell it--but you're told it's there," Doesburg said.

Even basic industrial chemicals could pose a threat. The Pentagon's current chemical detectors are not set up to identify common hazardous chemicals such as chlorine gas, which the Germans used in World War I.

Asked about nightmare scenarios, one defense researcher said, "Think Bhopal"--referring to a 1984 industrial accident in which a toxic cloud of hydrogen cyanide spewed from a Union Carbide plant in Bhopal, India, killing more than 2,000 people within hours. As many as 20,000 later died from gas-related illnesses.

The new technologies and improved equipment that the Pentagon has brought out since the Gulf War include:

* Chemical masks and suits: The armed services are replacing the hot and heavy Battle Dress Overgarment--a charcoal suit with a strap-on hood--with a sleeker, cooler one-piece suit.

* Portable detection kits: M-256 kits have been distributed to every unit. Soldiers would use them to identify nerve, blister and blood agents such as hydrogen cyanide.

* The Fox chemical detection vehicle: An amphibious armored car introduced by the Germans during the Gulf War to detect nerve agents, it now also detects blister agents, such as mustard gas, from three miles away. U.S. forces have 113 of them, nearly double the total in 1991.

* The Biologically Integrated Detection System: Created in 1996, this Humvee-mounted lab alerts operators that one of 10 biological agents has been found, but it can't identify which one; the findings must be verified with a laboratory, a procedure that can take hours. It also can detect a change in the size and number of particles in the air--possibly because of a dust cloud or an unknown virus. Operators also tote a new $60 hand-held device that can detect eight biological agents on contact.

* Decontamination systems: Cleaning an area struck by chemical or biological weapons can take days, requiring soldiers to spray a toxic decontaminant on exposed vehicles, buildings and equipment. Army researchers are now testing a system similar to de-icing trucks used at airfields. The GL1800 looks like an armored telephone truck, with a carriage that can lift an operator 42 feet to spray contaminated equipment from a safe distance. The new system uses an experimental nontoxic decontaminant. Among the first soldiers likely to face the prospect of toxic weapons in combat are from the 101st Airborne Division at Ft. Campbell, Ky.

The 101st underwent accelerated chemical training before going to Afghanistan and its troops now ponder the daunting prospect of chemical warfare in Iraq. Several soldiers fresh from Afghanistan said they're paid to take what comes.

If Hussein used chemical or biological weapons, "he'd be an idiot," said Staff Sgt. John Hughes, a 38-year-old licensed practical nurse who returned from a seven-month stint in Afghanistan in mid-July. "I don't think it'd be a problem. It's something that the infantry trains on all the time."

Added Chief Warrant Officer Edward Anthony Greer, 38, a Black Hawk helicopter pilot from a tough area of Gary, Ind., who also returned from Afghanistan in July, "I'm from Gary. I learned to dodge at an early age."



To: D. Long who wrote (47880)9/29/2002 8:12:18 AM
From: quehubo  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 281500
 
Bingo - First off Russia has already reached its peak oil production and can only be a painful but not life threatening distraction to OPEC nations. Time is on the side of OPEC nations as they hold most of the oil and many have not reached peaked production yet.

Iraq has been liquidating its oil assets for the last 12 years, who really thinks we are going to rush in and flip a switch and flood the market?

Realistically our interests are aligned with the other producers nations on the price of oil, we need a stable price of oil high enough to encourage continued development outside of OPEC. Low prices first destroy non OPEC supply which enhances OPEC control.

I suspect the Iraqi's will want to continue to be part of OPEC. Are we going to rush in and tell them they are free but they cant remain with their arab bothers in OPEC? Also without a stable price of oil $25 WTI, who will fund the reconstruction of Iraq's oil industry and everything else?

One goal of destroying Saddam is to gain leverage over the Saudi's. Even if it were possible to flip a switch in Iraq and flood the market with oil, this would not be a threat to the Saudi's it would be a death blow to their regime. Neither Norway, nor Mexico, nor Russia nor our own oil industry (workers in Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Alaska) would be happy with another cycle of low oil prices.