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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (8578)	9/29/2002 7:56:35 AM
From: Berk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

Justa, although sentiment is key to market turns, I've always found that net, net it's the market action that counts the most. It sounds stupid to say that but the history of sentiment is checkered with exceptions. Right now I would say that the retrace is still in play, i.e. the market action is still down. I would think we have to begin taking out prior tops in order to be concerned.

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (8578)	9/29/2002 9:34:53 AM
From: exp	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 30712

Jeff, Justa, Ajtj: FYI: July 2002 mutual funds stats: 216.239.51.100 Equity mutual funds $ 3.1 Trillion Bond/Stock hybrid funds $ 0.3 Trillion Bond mutual funds $ 1.0 Trillion Money Market funds $ 2.2 Trillion Rydex Bear fund assets: biz.yahoo.com Arktos (-1 x NDX) $ 131 Million Tempest (-2 x SPX) $ 292 Million Ursa Adv (-1 x SPX) $ 14 Million Ursa Inv (-1 x SPX) $ 309 Million Venture (-2 x NDX) $ 243 Million ----------------------------------------------------- Total (approx.): $1,000 Million = $1 Billion Comment: $1 Billion in Rydex Bear funds vs $3 Trillion in Equity mutual funds. I expect this ratio of ($1 Bln: $3 Trl) x 100% = 0.03% (Rydex Bear funds to Total Equity mutual funds) to grow extremely rapidly in years to come. I also expect Total Bond fund assets to rival Total Equity fund assets in the future.

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (8578)	9/29/2002 12:08:03 PM
From: Lone Ranger	Respond to of 30712

Justa, Great couple of posts with links. What I gather from reading those links is that the public is finally beginning to become bearish. The public is usually right in the middle of a trend. This trend should continue for a certain length of time as John Q. Public continues to remain bearish or bearishness increases. Sooner or later bearishness will decrease but John Q. will remain bearish as a major turn occurs. Its good to have this thread with the retrace and the T/A here to guide us. btw, next new lows on ndx and qqq are 830.21 and 20.65. Do you think we retest these levels before another pop? tia PS Wanted to add a quote from one of your links which I fully believe is true: "Typically, such bearish extremes are found at price lows, but acting on contrary opinion requires not only a consensus, it also requires that the consensus be wrong. One thing that is clear is that the bears have been right so far. That will not last indefinitely, but trying to anticipate a turn could be dangerous. "