Interesting, this article paints a somewhat different picture...
War Talk Shapes Fall Elections
Democrats' Ability to Use the Economy Against GOP Wanes
washingtonpost.com
By Dan Balz, David S. Broder and Helen Rumbelow
Washington Post Staff Writers
Sunday, September 29, 2002; Page A01
Five weeks before a crucial midterm election, Democratic hopes of making the November balloting a referendum on economic issues are being blocked by public preoccupation with terrorism and talk of war with Iraq, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News Poll and interviews with scores of voters in key states.
The focus on Iraq and terrorism helps Republicans, but there are enough doubts about the president's policy and concerns about other issues to prevent the GOP candidates from feeling too confident.
The national survey and the voter interviews found Americans holding sharply contradictory views about who they want to set the political agenda in Washington for the next two years. Voters are worried about the economy but do not hold Bush or Republicans responsible. They share near-universal distrust of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, but are wary about moving unilaterally against him.
Usually the president's party loses ground in midterm elections, but the debate over Iraq has created a fragmented environment politically, and it is not clear whether that will change between now and Nov. 5. Were it not for the emergence of possible war with Iraq and renewed focus on the next phase in the war against terrorism, this midterm election might be shaping up as more typical of others in the past, with Democrats exploiting economic anxieties to their advantage against the president's party in Congress.
As they approach the November elections -- in which control of both the Senate and House are at stake -- voters appear torn by conflicting impulses. By a margin of 46 percent to 39 percent, they said they had more confidence in Republicans than in Democrats to handle the country's biggest problems. But 56 percent said they preferred to see Democrats in charge of the next Congress to act as a check against the president, while just 34 percent said they preferred Republicans in charge to support Bush's agenda.
Bush's approval rating stands at 67 percent, down only slightly over the past month, and the poll found that three in five Americans (61 percent) favored using force to get rid of Hussein. But sentiment shifted significantly when voters were asked whether the United States should launch an attack over the opposition of U.S. allies, with 47 percent opposed and 46 percent in favor. Also, a majority (52 percent) said they were more worried that Bush would move too quickly to challenge Hussein, while 40 percent said they feared he would not move quickly enough.
"People are trying to figure out why President Bush is so bent on attacking Iraq when you don't have worldwide support," said Dale Barnhill, the high school principal in Norwalk, Iowa, just south of Des Moines, as he watched his Norwalk Warriors football team play the Saydel Eagles on a recent Friday night. "It seems like we've done a good job in the past in bringing together a coalition. Why do we want to do anything to ruin those relationships?"
A bare majority of Americans (51 percent) cite the economy as the nation's biggest problem, but 47 percent say terrorism is the more pressing issue. The poll also found that Americans most worried about the economy tilt Democratic, while those who see terrorism as the country's biggest challenge favor Republicans.
On the economy, although voters do not blame President Bush for the stock market decline and sluggish growth, a majority say they believe he is not spending enough time with economic or domestic problems.
Apprehension and Apathy
The poll and the voter interviews also point to an electorate unwilling to draw clear distinctions between domestic and international issues, as Democrats have been counting on. Two years ago Rebecca Dunbar, 49, who lives in the Denver suburbs, voted for Al Gore for president, but she has since come to admire Bush for his handling of the war on terrorism.
"The international issues are domestic issues right now," she said. "Terrorism is the number one issue causing fear and trepidation in the American public. People aren't sure; they don't know if we're capable of defending ourselves, if attacking is right. People are apprehensive now."
The poll results are based on telephone interviews that were conducted Monday through Thursday with 1,003 randomly selected adults nationwide. The margin of sampling error for overall results is plus or minus three percentage points. The face-to-face interviews were conducted largely in ticket-splitting or evenly divided precincts in Colorado, Iowa, Florida and Connecticut.
Those personal interviews underscored the fact that, despite a year of tumult and tragedy, many voters approach the November vote with more apathy than anger, and without a clear checklist of issues crying out for attention from politicians in Washington. Voters are worried about the country -- 53 percent said things had gone off on the wrong track -- but appear bored by the campaign itself. In part because of their strong support for the president, Republican voters seem to be more motivated to turn out in November.
With the fall campaign just beginning to intensify, voters expressed dismay at the tone of the negative campaigning they are already seeing on their televisions.
One reason many voters appear indifferent to what happens in the upcoming elections is that the work of this Congress has left no impression with them. Although the 107th Congress already has approved significant legislation on taxes, education, campaign finance, corporate accountability and domestic security, few voters can cite a single accomplishment.
For many Americans, Congress has become the invisible branch of government. "It's hard because Bush is so strong," said Janice Deturk, a retired psychologist in the Denver suburbs. "They've just kind of melted away behind Bush."
The Threat of Iraq
Interviews with voters revealed strong feelings about the dangers posed by Hussein's quest for weapons of mass destruction, but also highlighted the reluctance of many Americans to embrace Bush's policy without reservations.
Bryce Matthews, 39, who works for a fire alarm company near Denver, supports Bush wholeheartedly. "I think there is a threat from Saddam Hussein, and it's important we deal with it," he said. "I think it's really unfortunate that we as the U.S. have to be the policeman of the world, but if we don't, who is going to do it? If we have to stand alone, so be it."
Rick Stageman, 50, a telecommunications technician from Norwalk, Iowa, said Hussein's quest for weapons of mass destruction leaves the United States no option but to act, alone if necessary. "I think we're capable of it," he said. "The real tragedy would be not to act and have a repeat of September 11, only with a nuclear device."
But Roger Guerrero, an electrical engineer from Jacksonville, said he worried about the precedent of taking unilateral action. "I think we may be on the verge of seeing something historic," he said. "I think the whole world may unite, but unfortunately they may unite against the United States."
Priscilla Chadbourne, a retiree who lives in Plainville, Conn., gives Bush good grades for the way he has handled things but fears he is pushing too hard on Iraq. "We're already in Afghanistan," she said. "This would be too much. We don't have enough of a military to do all this."
In northwest Des Moines, Robert Morris was holding one of his 5-month-old twins as he talked about the choices facing the president. Morris said that he believes "there are people over in the Middle East who shouldn't be in power," but worries that the United States might be too willing to go it alone. "I just don't know how we can take care of that without the support of other countries," he said.
Morris said he had confidence in Bush to make the right call but added, "The trouble is, it's a pretty hard call to make."
The Post-ABC News poll found that 78 percent of Republicans supported the general proposition of using force against Iraq, but Democrats were sharply divided, with 47 percent favoring use of force and 50 percent opposed. When asked about acting unilaterally, Republican support for the use of force declined to 59 percent, while Democratic support dropped to just 35 percent.
More than three in five Democrats (63 percent) said they feared Bush would act too quickly on Iraq rather than not quickly enough. Republicans are more evenly divided, with 49 percent saying they fear Bush will not act quickly enough and 40 percent saying they worry he will act too quickly.
Voters dismiss Democratic suggestions that Bush is using Iraq for political purposes, with 59 percent saying they do not think he is attempting to influence the elections by pushing Congress to vote on a resolution before it adjourns.
At the same time, almost one-third of those surveyed (30 percent) said a "no" vote on that resolution would make them less likely to vote for a member of the House or Senate. Eighteen percent said they were more likely to vote for someone who opposed the resolution, while 49 percent said it would not affect their vote.
On the Domestic Front
Jim Wandro, 39, a high school teacher who lives in Des Moines, said the economy was the number one issue on his agenda this fall. "From the time I was 30 until to two years ago, things were going great," he said. "I just don't think that cutting taxes and corporate welfare is going to help the country at all."
In Norwalk, Iowa, Ken Van Horn took a break after mowing his lawn to talk about his personal balance sheet. "It was looking good to retire at 55," he said. "Now it's looking like 67. . . . When you're aggressive in your 401(k) at my age, you pay for it." He gives Bush high marks generally, but not on the economy. "I wish he'd focus on home issues like the economy as much as he does on Iraq."
Wandro and Van Horn are the kind of voters Democrats are counting on to win back the House and maintain their slender majority in the Senate, and who will support Democrats in November.
On economic and domestic issues, Democrats currently hold the advantage over Republicans. The Post-ABC News poll found voters think Democrats are better equipped to handle the economy, Social Security, education, health care, the environment and prescription drugs. Only on taxes and the federal budget are the two parties at parity.
But the economy is not a clear-cut issue for many voters as they assign blame for the declining stock market and sluggish recovery. Two in three voters say Washington should be doing more to boost the economy. Among those who are pessimistic about the economy, only 13 percent blame Bush and even fewer blame Democrats or Republicans in Congress. Instead, half of those voters blame either the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11 or normal changes in the business cycle.
"I don't think the economy is doing well, a lot of companies are closing, but I think it's part of the cycle -- what comes up must come down," said Rebecca Dunbar in Denver.
Still, Bush's tax cut received mediocre reviews from voters interviewed by Post reporters, and there appears to be little demand for what the Republicans are offering this fall on the economy. "I appreciated it, but I don't think it helped the economy," said Bruce Kone, a Houston physician, of last year's tax cut. "It's mind-boggling that we turned a surplus into a deficit so quickly."
Both parties promised in the last election to provide a prescription drug benefit to senior citizens, but the legislation remains bogged down in Congress. The Post poll found that 45 percent of Americans blame the Republicans for the impasse while 26 percent blame the Democrats. But few voters interviewed face to face volunteered the prescription drug issue as crying out for attention in Washington.
The uproar over corporate accountability appears to have little political potency. Only 8 percent of poll respondents cite it as the most important issue influencing their vote this fall. "They're sensationalizing what happened, and in an election year they're trying to get leverage out of it," said Annette Emblen, an advertising markets consultant for a Des Moines insurance company. "I think the Democrats are proposing buffoonery legislation just as much as the Republicans."
A Government Divided
Congress's approval rating has declined since July, from 57 percent positive to 51 percent, according to the poll, and by a statistically insignificant margin, Americans said they were more likely to vote for a Democrat for the House in November than for a Republican, 47 percent to 44 percent.
The public has more faith in Bush to deal with major issues than with the Democrats in Congress (54 percent to 38 percent), but believes that Washington would work better in the next two years if Democrats were in control of Congress.
"As much as I'd like to see Republicans control it, you've got to have the check and balance," said Bruce Babcock, a Des Moines-area pharmacist.
Christy Denton, an accounting specialist from Jacksonville, said, "We're Republicans, but I think it's better to have it split."
It is not clear how much these sentiments will actually influence voters in November. A Connecticut voter who supported Gore in 2000 nonetheless said he likely will vote to reelect Republican Rep. Nancy L. Johnson, who is in a tough race in a district that Democrats hope to pick up in November.
The growing partisanship that has marked the final months of this Congress, combined with the barrage of negative ads aired in competitive House and Senate campaigns, has left a sour taste with many voters, which raises questions about whether this midterm election is heading toward a low turnout.
Jackie Deturk in the Denver suburbs spoke for many others when she described what she has seen in the campaign between Sen. Wayne Allard (R) and his Democratic challenger, Tom Strickland. "It's so horribly negative, you can't believe either one," she said. "They contradict each other and say opposite things. There is a loss of trust in either of them as leaders." |
