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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask DrBob -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: bcrafty who wrote (67029)9/29/2002 7:46:10 PM
From: kleht  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 100058
 
Bcrafty: Hope you don't mind me questioning something here regarding VIX. I'm having a hard time relating the VIX of today with that of 1987. There does not seem to be a direct relationship IMHO.

The 1987 crash occurred in the midst of an ongoing bull market as opposed to the current bear.

In 1987 VIX went from the low 20's on a closing basis to around 150 in only a matter of days. It's my understanding that a high VIX does not measure how low the market drops, but rather how quickly and violently it does so.

Todays VIX has moved up much more gradually in response to a much more gradual drop to whatever lows that have been seen already. The fact that last week's VIX did not rise with the fall in stock prices would not seem necessarily to have any significant meaning. The drop, while strong, was not very violent.

If we are in fact testing the bottom reached in July, I'm not sure that VIX would rise far or that volume would necessarily increase substantially.

I think my point is that 1987 may be a poor circumstance to relate to today's VIX. A more appropriate one could well be the 1974 Nov-Dec test of the Oct bottom. Do you know if there is any VIX data available relating to the 1974 bear market bottom?