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Strategies & Market Trends : Guidance and Visibility -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 2MAR$ who wrote (75380)	9/29/2002 6:19:02 PM
From: Joe Stocks	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 208838

Here is alittle excerpt from OptionInvestor.com that I found of interest. (below) Could be interesting what we see in October. Not good in my opinion. Mutual funds must also be looking at having to meet redemption so they are even more motivated to sell IMO. On a side note... I'm really interested in this REI/RRI spin-off that takes place tomorrow. Something like 240 million shares of RRI will be dumped on the market with many of these shareholders that have been holding REI for the dividend may want to sell the RRI shares. REI's new symbol will be CNP. RRI selling at 10% of book and carrying a PE close to 2. I also could see additional interest in REI from the fixed income crowd as it has now rid itself of the unregulated portion of their business. REI has a dividend of 64 cents now which they have said they feel comfortable with going forward. REI will price out with the RRI shares removed at less than $8.00. REI has a PE of 3.4. I like them both for different reasons. Just too bad the market is so ugly right now. Anyway, I think these two have extraordinary circunstances that may have them outperform near term. Good conference call presentation available at the RRI website. Joe Excerpt: "The talking heads were discussing tax loss selling on Friday. This is an October event because most funds have October year ends. They will add up their winners and losers and decide how much they can sell for a profit to offset the tax loss. In a perfect world they would sell a stock for a profit that had a good run and they felt had topped to offset losses on investments that failed and they sold for a loss. This minimizes the overall taxable event and prevents huge tax loss carry forwards. The problem this year is lack of winners. Who are they going to sell? While this may be a problem on the surface there may be more winners than you think. Looking at a six-year chart as an example MMM was only $70, PG in the $40s, MO $20, JNJ $30, MSFT $25, Dell $10, AMGN $15, BGEN $20, ERTS $20, EBAY $20, ESRX $10, INTU $15, IBM $35, UTX $30, WMT $20, HD $15, QCOM $6. In fund years these prices were last week. With the fertile field of winners there should be lots of selling to offset losers. Unfortunately the majority of these stocks are key components to the major indexes. This means the Dow/Nasdaq may be very susceptible to October tax selling. It is one thing for the mutual funds to tell you they lost 25% more of your money and another thing to realize that it will take years to benefit from those losses on your taxes. Funds trying to escape more investor flight will be trying to mitigate those losses as much as possible. Will there be tax loss selling in October? You can bet on it!"

To: 2MAR$ who wrote (75380)	9/29/2002 6:57:25 PM
From: Dave Gore	Respond to of 208838

Mar$ -- Everything you say is also obvious. Regarding your statement below, you left off a few over the last 2-3 months or so, but that's OK, I'll list them for accuracy sake, since you want to talk only about trading. Note: The options trades were oldies but goodies. <PS: You made one good call on SYMC dip and bounce weeks ago ,so why don't you do some follow-up dailys and make some calls for that one stock for the good people here from now on , and start a thread for all this other self-serving BS , OK ?> MIR ----- up 100% in 2 days ACF ----- went up 85% in 2 weeks ORB ----- went up 80% in 2 days FNM options --- 550 and 700% in 4 days HAL options --- 500% in 4 days ESST options --- 120% in 2 days AKLM ----- up 110% in 2.5 weeks ITRI ---- up 65% in 6 weeks SYMC --- from $30 to $35 and $27 to $33. TYC -- $8 to $12 QLGC, CCRN, CPRT (other ODOD's) -- many small gains lately Many others and definitely some losses too, but they were almost all less than -5%, except a bad "hold" call on AKLM, no question about it.