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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (19634)	9/30/2002 12:25:05 AM
From: c.hinton	Respond to of 36161

Re bonds,I understand US debt is largley short term , 72% under 5years,that leaves the US very vunerable to a raise in interest rates, as has been warned here on the thread.Unfortunately for economic policy makers it is much more difficult to inflate away short term debt than it is long term debt,it only leave to much higher interest rates.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (19634)	9/30/2002 1:30:17 AM
From: jtech	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 36161

What about those airline stocks? If you want to be short bonds this is the best but not yet in my opinion.Wait until the first interest increase by the fed which could be years from now. The Juno Fund seeks to provide total returns that will inversely correlate to the price movements of a benchmark for U.S. Treasury debt instruments or futures contract on a specified debt instrument. The Fund’s current benchmark is the inverse of the daily price movement of the Long Treasury Bond. Gold is ok but gold stocks are not.Probably the biggest crooks will be the gold companies.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (19634)	9/30/2002 8:10:47 AM
From: rolatzi	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36161

A comparison of gold and the stock market in 1929-38 is instructive: Slider says: A recent article on Gold's past speculative move's; pointed out that something on the order of 75% of the move in price occurs in the final 10% time frame of the cycle. Indeed by the middle of 1932 when the DJI average bottomed, Homestake mining had moved from around 50 to around 125. In the subsequent three and a half years ending in 1935 Homestake leveled out with a top of around 500: see the chart in the article: gold-eagle.com Interestingly, the DJIA displayed a strong cyclical recovery in that same period going from 50 to around 150 (though in another chart it indicates monthly closes of around 100, so the 150 might have been very short lived. So, at some point we may expect such a recovery in stocks and perhaps we have time to invest in miners since a good part of the move occurred after the market bottomed and could be associated with a recovery in stocks. Ro