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To: X Y Zebra who wrote (75415)	9/30/2002 9:27:29 AM
From: SirRealist	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 208838

Business economists see no rate cuts NABE sees deflation, housing bubble as remote risks By Rex Nutting, CBS.MarketWatch.com Last Update: 9:15 AM ET Sept. 30, 2002 WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- The U.S. economy isn't setting any speed records, but it's growing fast enough to forestall any further action from the Federal Reserve, business economists said Monday. CBS MARKETWATCH TOP NEWS Futures lowers as Europe techs, insurers stumble Tokyo stocks down after Cabinet reshuffle Citigroup offered to spin off research side: report Ten mega-trends for 2003 Free! Sign up here to receive Bambi Francisco's Net Sense e-newsletter! In its semiannual outlook survey, the National Association for Business Economists said the economy would likely grow 3.2 percent in 2003 after 2.4 percent growth this year. The NABE surveyed 32 economists among its membership of thousands of economists who work for top businesses. Although the economists are cautiously optimistic, they believe the risks to their forecasts are largely on the downside. Half of the forecasters say war or unrest in the Middle East is the biggest threat, while 15 percent say further declines in the stock market are the top worry. Capital spending and job growth will remain anemic, they said. Only one of the 32 forecasters expects the Federal Open Market Committee to cut rates. However, the survey was conducted before the most recent Federal Open Market Committee, in which two members called for an immediate rate cut. One of those two, Dallas Fed President Robert McTeer, is scheduled to speak to the group Monday morning. "Policymakers don't need to rush to the aid of the economy," said Tim O'Neill, president-elect of the NABE and chief economist at BMO Financial Group. Most of the big economic worries -- deflation, double-dip recession and housing bubble -- are seen as remote events by the NABE panel. On Sunday, the group heard from Robert Hall, chairman of the business cycle dating committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research, who said the de facto arbiter of booms and busts has not yet determined when the 2001 recession ended, or in fact if it has yet. If the economy sinks back into recession, Hall said, the committee will have to determine whether it's a new recession or a continuation of the old one. If the economy does not sink back into recession, the NBER will likely determine that the economy bottomed between November and March. Rex Nutting is Washington bureau chief of CBS.MarketWatch.com.