Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Guidance and Visibility -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SpinCity1 who wrote (75454)	9/30/2002 10:18:02 AM
From: SirRealist	Respond to of 208838

However, speculators, not shorts, are the chief culprits. Yup, Spin. Market is the leading indicator. But I'm only predicting recession; gotta way to go to call it depression.

To: SpinCity1 who wrote (75454)	9/30/2002 10:21:03 AM
From: farkarooski	Respond to of 208838

<<first the crash came then the depression>> how come I was deeply depressed even during the hyperbolic bull phase ...

To: SpinCity1 who wrote (75454)	9/30/2002 11:09:33 AM
From: X Y Zebra	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 208838

If you do not believe or understand the long term implications of what is going to happen to our entire economy just remember this, first the crash came then the depression, not vise versa. The long term implications of a debt ridden society, (at both, the corporation and personal level), partially prompted by a series of ever changing-pork-barrel-motivated tax laws that make long range planning all but impossible, not to mention idiotic speculation from morons with fast-triggered-buy-clicking-internet-day-trading-wannabes who spent all their paper-gains ahead of fully realizing them --now all gone and converted to losses-- AND A telecom industry leading a charge, (comparable to the polish cavalry charge against the Nazi Panzers), based on a wild-arse assumption that the third world would embrace the "Internet Revolution" with eager-beaver enthusiasm (never mind that the majority of their respective populations did not make enough money to eat, let alone "buy the next generation-high-tech-gizmo-capable-of-blazing-speed-Internet-connectivity" ---->breath<---- went out and acquired debt in the several billion dollars (NOT Argentinean Pesos) level is what causing the market decline. Yes, I realize that the market is the PRECURSOR of what follows in the economy. So wot's next mate? Ah let's say, for starters... that American and industrial Europe labor, with their excellent benefits and paternalistic views of the world are in for a deflationary shock.... Why? Because there are millions of very inexpensive peasants available in the very same third world that the telecom companies were seeking to expand forever their networks in hopes of growth-to-the-sky-stock prices... This labor will compete and render labor unions obsolete, (or turn outright socialists --more?) AH... and let’s NOT forget the hordes of WTO-modern-day-hippies who want the IMF to FORGIVE the existing DEBT to bankrupt countries, making the idiot-MBA-titled bankers who lent the money in the first place, a tad worried, since the chances of getting the money back from countries like Argentina (led by ego-maniacs, dreaming that their economy was "first world") is exactly ZERO to NIL without considering the hippies. NO... --my friend-- short selling is NOT the cause of the market current ills... Understand that Capital has NO allegiance to any flag or border. Just like water flows downhill (unless you are a Mormon and believe that water can flow uphill -g-) Capital is equally fluid it runs AWAY from trouble... and right now, the US is in trouble. So Capital is annoyed with the US, luckily, IMO it is only annoyed, not completely mad, since frankly, I am puzzled as to WHERE is it going to go, because if Capital thinks the US is in the crapper, Capital also believes that the rest of the world is in the vomitorium on top of the crapper. Yes, it is very complicated and frankly, I do not claim to understand it all. Alan Greenspan, (and others), seem to have a bit of a tough spot managing all this mess, so I am not going to claim that I fully understand it all... BUT What I can assure you with 100% certainty is... Short selling, (repeating) is a mere tool, a reaction TO and NOT the cause OF a sick market. Besides.... if no short selling were allowed... the decline could become a VERTICAL cascade... in the direction that WATER flows.... DOWN. [and I am sure there are other causes to the market ills, but short selling is NOT one of them] ---Having said that--- At the risk of being flamed by a few depression and doom and gloom lieutenants (probably frustrated and depressed on their own), I am not so negative --for now-- based on the (partially) imigrant led (my own theory) boomlet in real estate, (and lowering interest rates) which has allowed a degree of liquidity due to re-finances. and remember I said "partially led". There are regions of the country where the economy seems, for now, be in fine shape. But that can change... Once again, Short Selling is NOT the cause.