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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: JohnM who wrote (48248)9/30/2002 11:18:26 AM
From: LindyBill  Respond to of 281500
 
seeing that leader might act in unanticipated ways,

The best summation I have read of this is in Clarridge's book, "Spy for all Seasons." He has quite a discourse on what the CIA uses a racial epithet to describe, "The Wog Factor." Foreign Countries will do things that just make no sense to us.



To: JohnM who wrote (48248)10/1/2002 6:36:27 AM
From: spiral3  Respond to of 281500
 
I'm not at all certain just how to reply.
indeed I pointed to this problem in my post where I said that with thinking like mine it is hard to be taken seriously. Focusing your reply as you did was well measured imo.

But let me try just the portion on rationality and mirror imaging, which, incidentally, doesn't seem to me to be very important. Just an interesting wrinkle on thinking about foreign policy issues. If it doesn't help you, just don't use it. Ditto for Derek, if he reads this.....why the dismissive tone, exactly how I am to decide whether to use it or not, if I don’t take a look at it to see if it helps.

I was simply responding to what you said here...By contrast, Pollack's op ed piece offers a nice tease that he plans, among other things, to make an argument with evidence that "mirror imaging" doesn't work. I look forward to seeing if I agree. Message 18043683
I looked forward to see if I agreed too, so that I could share my views. I found it an inspiring take off point, which I did, a starter gun if you will. Take it as a compliment for gods sake, I agree with Condors comments that without you ‘we’ are nothing, even if you don’t like the way I lined them up at the finish.

And I only meant that one doesn't have to make judgments about one's own rationality or the rationality of the leader of some other state....thanks for clarifying your position, but in all the posts up to the time of my response to you, you never stated this so quite so clearly, so it was hard to tell. At no point was I trying to argue with what I’d read you’d said. My name is David not Derek.

It doesn't do motives or intentions, assuming one could make an argument that there are serious differences between the two. It's much lower down the abstraction scale.....in the interests of collective sanity thank you for not getting started on this -g-

It also leaves the analyst free to look into the reasons for the surprising behavior of the opposing foreign leader without jumping the evidence barrier to terms like "irrational" or "madman." ....in real life, mine not Pollacks, I don’t need any fancy theories that free me up to look at things from a valid perspective, some call this common sense, which as a loosely defined concept causes enormous theoretical problems but we use it anyway. If Pollacks approach floats his boat, fine, we all have our own journeys to make, still wondering if he realizes that he is the primary structural factor, surely he must do. I take it you did not particularly enjoy scanning the evidence of my ‘leap of faith’ -g-

As for using the term "madman" to describe Saddam, I don't think there's any doubt he deserves it on his human rights record alone.....something we can definitely agree on.

But that's not about trying to decide what is the best course of action to pursue.....exactamundo, but then again I made it quite explicit that I was not discussing the rest of the book.

I try to roll a lot of stuff into one, not saying it’s gospel John, just an idea, take it or leave it.

Hope this addressed some of your concerns.
ditto.