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Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eva who wrote (3405)	9/30/2002 1:56:31 PM
From: X Y Zebra	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57110

like to play with NVLS ! hehehe I have done a little myself but I do not know it well. _______________- Oil futures trade modestly higher By Myra P. Saefong, CBS.MarketWatch.com Last Update: 1:46 PM ET Sep 30, 2002 NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- A combination of factors kept oil traders on edge Monday, including the possibility of another hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, ongoing tensions in the Middle East and an upcoming update on weekly petroleum supplies. The latest weekly inventories data will provide the action against a backdrop in which U.S. crude supplies have fallen over the past four weeks, and could prove bullish for prices in the aftermath of Tropical Storm Isidore. The November crude contract traded 15 cents higher at $30.69 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. October heating oil rose 0.27 cent to 80.65 cents a gallon, and unleaded gasoline added 0.37 cents to 81.8 cents a gallon. On the International Petroleum Exchange in London, Brent crude traded at $28.95 a barrel, up 7 cents. "The drivers remain the same as last week," said Alan Struth, president of consulting firm Energy Insights. He ticked off tensions between Israel and the Palestinians, continuing signs of military action against Iraq and the likelihood that Tropical Storm Lili will achieve hurricane status as it enters the Gulf of Mexico. Struth added, "there doesn't seem to be many downside factors at this point." Last week, Isidore managed to disrupt oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico -- the specific effects of which could surface in Tuesday's update in U.S. petroleum supplies from the American Petroleum Institute. Lili could pose a disruption threat for Gulf gas output this week, according to analysts at Fimat USA. Lili is gathering strength and expectations are for the Energy Department to disclose a very low build in weekly gas stocks this week, Fimat analysts said, noting that Isidore forced producers to shut in 30 billion cubic feet or more of natural gas output. In recent trading, the November natural gas contract rose 10.9 cents to $4.15 per million British thermal units. U.S. crude supplies have fallen around 15 million barrels in the last four weeks. The API will provide an update on weekly supplies late Tuesday, while the Energy Department is set to release its own crude data early Wednesday, followed by gas data on Thursday. Meanwhile, Iraq has "categorically stated" that any new United Nations resolution on weapons inspection will be rejected, analysts at Fimat said, adding that key members of Congress appearing on weekend talk shows urged that the Bush administration "give inspections time to work." This means that "war is not going to break out this week," the analysts said. By the same token, "war is coming" and there will be a "short violent spike" in prices. Taking a look at the bigger picture, Erik Gebhard, an analyst at Altavest.com said "the energy markets are undeniably in an uptrend and unless the geopolitical landscape takes a 180 degree turn overnight, they will remain supported and will possibly build in even larger risk premiums." JPMorgan ups oil price forecast In related news Monday, JPMorgan raised its price forecast for West Texas Intermediate type crude to $26.60 from $25.40 for 2002 and to $26.20 from $25.40 in 2003. Previous JP Morgan forecasts on a quarterly basis are still above consensus, Paul Horsnell, an analyst at the brokerage, but consensus forecasts are "too conservative and biased towards upside risks given the current state of both oil market fundamentals and international politics." The third quarter normally sees rising global inventories with U.S. inventories flat with a fall in crude oil compensated by a rise in oil products, he said. But global inventories have actually failed to build in Q3, and total U.S. inventories have fallen due to a greater than normal reduction in crude-oil supplies, Horsnell said. "The market has tightened significantly over the course of Q3, and that tightening has yet to fully work its way through the system," he said. With global demand starting its usual seasonal increase, "the market has been left in a position where crude-oil supplies are more stretched than usual even before demand rises." Additionally, Horsnell believes that the situation between the U.S. and Iraq is "still some way from any resolution or removal of uncertainty" and will likely provide further support to prices over the next two quarters. Gold futures up by $5 On the Commodities Exchange division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, weakness in the broader U.S. stock market pulled futures prices for gold higher by as much as $5 at one point. Gold for December delivery rose to a high at $326.20 before losing part of those lofty gains to trade at $325.10 an ounce, up $4. The Reuters/CRB Index, a broad-based measure of the commodity futures market, declined by 0.1 percent to stand at 226.87. ------------------------------------------------------------