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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Maurice Winn who wrote (23676)9/30/2002 9:15:44 PM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 74559
 
Hi Maurice, The tenth one still works for Pacific Bell Telecom as a systems manager. The nine worked in various flavors of investment banking, private equity, and one in telecom capacity wholesale. The financial types are now looking for opportunities in hedge fund startups, and the telco wholesale buddy is getting his real estate certificate.

I would guess that all had made over USD 200k pre-tax during 1999 and possibly 2000. Now, the wives who were not working are being put back into the job market.

The buddy who sold his house for USD 1.2 mm knows that the new buyer put down USD 300k as downpayment and borrowed the rest; the husband is an independent software programmer, and wife an executive at a department store chain. We figured the new buyers must make USD 200k pretax in order to keep food on table, taxes remitted, cars fueled, and mortgage/property tax paid. If either one loses his/her income, then the house must be "disgorged" (BTW, that seems to be a newly popular term in the media).

Again, as a reminder, we are not yet officially in a recession, and the twin bubbles have not been popped.

Some fellow threaders (they seem to have mostly disappeared for now, until the rally, no doubt) had posted about jobs being created. Yes, jobs are being created by government, burger flipping joints, and possibly taxi companies. Alas, not jobs that maintain USD 1.2 mm house prices.

The mortgage and derivatives industry(s) have managed to spread the financial risk far and wide, as the (term taken from www.dailyreckoning.com ) 'benighted' Greensputin, but also thick, making sure when the stuff goes toxic, it does so with unprecedented cleansing affects.

Chugs, Jay



To: Maurice Winn who wrote (23676)11/2/2002 7:16:32 PM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
Hello Maurice, <<with only 7% unemployment, one would be 'of course', two unfortunate, three unusual, four surprising ... five statistically abnormal - heading out into the multiple standard deviation countryside, six silly, seven untrue, eight "Hey, what's going on here", nine - so, ... what's wrong with the tenth?>>

online.wsj.com

"Sherry Cooper of the Bank of Montreal Financial Group, in an interesting commentary on the deceptiveness of the relatively low unemployment rate -- the so-called headline numbers, pointed out that it masked the true nature of the job market. "Discouraged workers have stopped seeking employment," she notes, "as the labor-force-participation rate has plummeted and the average duration of unemployment in the U.S. has risen."

This is, moreover, she avers, "a very different kind of joblessness than ever before -- it is primarily white collar and highly educated. They are people who have never been unemployed before. They are managers, business consultants, auditors, engineers, technology workers and investment bankers." (And, much as we hate to admit it, even investment bankers have to eat.)"


Maurice, for the umpteenth time, we must try to seek truth from facts.

FYI, the tenth one is lucky, and is the least certifiably educated of the ten, holds a still-must-do kind of job, managing a bunch of systems engineers at Pacific Bell, for now, until the systems engineers are made redundant.

Your CDMA whatever may come in handy in zipping resumes back and forth across cyber space, if the operators can still fund the rollout, and SUV-ed consumers can afford the gadgets and believe jobs can be found via the gadgets.

I do not know what you see from down-under, but the bad news is confoundedly accelerating in throughput and increasing in bulk. The worst is still to follow, for we know this, because the benighted Maestro has been lying all along on just about everything, or he was simply senile. Pick your choice.

Chugs, Jay