Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: drsvelte who wrote (38132)	10/1/2002 1:53:00 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Respond to of 68821

Hi Doc, Good that you are weathering the storms without too much difficulty. I am taking the bolded part of the write up on BBY as raising their guidance. The ranges have been increased. On the counter side gross margins don't seem as strong, but as I am short of time I am including BBY on the raised guidance list based on the gross numbers. I have limitd time so I have a loose critieria for what makes it on the list. It is only a starting point, one still need to dig into the numbers before taking a position. BBBY raised guidance I think too, but it was not covered on the briefing.com site. I don't have time to dig through all the archives. If you sport something you want to add, just add it to the list. I am only including companies that raised guidance this quarter. Given the weak environment you have to have pretty strong convictions and orders in hand to raise numbers. As CEO it would be suicide if you don't have those two elements. I also starting to look at gold as a currency hedge. It looks like Bush wants to de-value the dollar to make the US more competitive on exports. Given the resulting currency volatility, gold may see some life. ******************* Archive Headline17-Sep-02Best Buy (BBY) 25.90 +1.81: By its own admission, the second quarter ended Aug. 31 was a difficult one for Best Buy. Net earnings of $62 mln, or $0.19 per diluted share, were down 27% from the yr-ago period and comparable store sales, while up 2.0%, fell noticeably short of its original forecast for growth of 4-5%. BBY's stock, which is down 41% since the start of Q2 clearly reflects those challenges. It is up today, however, as the company held the line--and investor interest-- with its earnings guidance for the remainder of the year. Specifically, BBY said it expects Q3 (Nov) EPS in the range of $0.22-0.27 (Multex consensus $0.23), Q4 (Feb) EPS in the range of $1.05-1.15 (consensus $1.07), and FY02 EPS in the range of $1.68-1.83 (consensus $1.72). To its credit, management did a nice job on the conference call in addressing the issues that negatively impacted the company's Q2 results and laying out a coherent four-point plan for growing profits in the second half of the year. That plan calls for (1) reducing costs in areas that don't impact the consumer (2) pushing forward with new store openings to bolster its competitive position entering the holiday season (3) focusing its energy on popular product categories to drive sales and market share and (4) continuing to enhance the capability of its employees to provide the best possible customer environment. BBY, though, won't be without its challenges in coming quarters. It faces a more value-conscious consumer, heightened competition, increased promotional activity, and a curtailed benefit from the introduction of low interest rates that it enjoyed last year. Fittingly, BBY expects gross margins to be flat in Q3 and to slip roughly 100 basis points in Q4, which encompasses the key holiday selling season. Those challenges aside, BBY placated investors with sales and earnings guidance that it deemed prudently conservative given the challenging environment. Comparable store sales, for instance, are projected to be flat in Q3 and Q4. The recognition by the market, though, that consumer spending may not be as depressed as feared in coming quarters due, in part, to the positive impact of cash-out mortgage refinancings has also been a supportive consideration that has helped boost its stock today. At current levels, BBY is up 40% from the lows it saw on Aug. 8 following its pernicious Q2 warning. Arguably, it is overbought on a near-term basis and due for a period of consolidation. That point notwithstanding, Briefing.com believes BBY is attractively priced for patient-minded investors at current levels given its relatively reassuring outlook, market-leading position, and attractive valuation.-- Patrick J. O'Hare, Briefing.com

To: drsvelte who wrote (38132)	10/2/2002 12:43:25 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 68821

Hi Doc, It looks like you are not the only ones looking at cyclicals. 12:37 ET Basic Materials show strength The following stocks are demonstrating relative intraday strength - pushing out to fresh session highs: DD (+4.1%), DOW (+3.3%), AA (+3.1%), D (+1.3%), NUE (+0.8%), HAL (+4.1%), PDE (+0.8%)... Heavily represented on the list are Basic Materials and Oil Services stocks. I only see this as a brief technical rally within a down trend right now. COMPX needs to break resistance at 1240-1250 before people get bolder.