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Technology Stocks : eBay - Superb Internet Business Model -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SBerglowe who wrote (7068)	9/30/2002 10:09:58 PM
From: AJ Berger	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 7772

We're not out of the woods yet While today's action has given shorts much to celebrate, I would be keeping gains close to the vest, or maybe putting stops 5% outside your price to lock any gains. The reason for my concern is ebaY's uncanny habit of beating the street by a penny each and every quarter. Micheal DELL used to pull this off when his company was on the grow, and nobody can argue EBAY's not growing. ebaY is particularly motivated to do it this quarter since the PayPal will be voting the deal only days before ebaY reports the quarter. Since this is a stock swap deal, and PayPal recently tasted $30, it won't take kindly to getting $15 per share in eBay if ebay trades much below $45. I'm not saying Paypal is actually worth more, just that insiders expect it. ebaY always boils up into earnings, and sells off soon afterwards (especially when all the insiders get to finally sell their latest option offerring). I expect ebaY to pull another rabbit out of it's hat. The difference now will be lower lows and lower highs, and much wider intraday swings. EBAY stock veterans are used to 10% intraday swings, so you better buy an extra large bottle of TUMS tonight. Disclosure: I covered half today, and will decide if I should cover and wait, or even go long, once I get a feel for how EBAY trades post quarterly window dressing, and pre-earnings release. ---------- Bill; our points about Car sales are actually in sync. because of a glut in used cars, it's a buyers market especially on ebay, and sellers are getting screwed. I'm sorry your friend got hosed. I have a friend who plays with classic cars and his answer would have been; "should'ah just left it in the barn another 5 years..."