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To: lifeisgood who wrote (16785)10/1/2002 2:28:22 PM
From: geode00  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 42834
 
I see (am I the only one?) the p/c at extremely high levels:

stockcharts.com[l,a]declnyay[d19970101,20021211][pc50!c20!a.9!a.95][vc60]&pref=G

If you squint you can see the red 20 d MA line. It bottomed in March 2000 and has been steadily marching upwards since. Recently it looked as if it would start going down again but shot up again to really high levels.

I understand that different people look at different p/c stats and that some say the numbers have been high for the last two years so spikes over 1 no longer make a difference. That's like saying that it's different this time.

I'm sure it's different in a bear than in a bull but extreme is extreme in any case. I agree though that other sentiment indicators (II, etc.) are too complacent. The VIX hit 170+ during the crash of 1987 and it hasn't gone anywhere near that in recent memory.

stockcharts.com[m,a]daclyyay[d20010101,20021231][pb10!b21!b][vc60][iUb20!La12,26,9!La24,52,18!Ls12,26,9]&pref=G

At any rate, this is the info I have. Anyone have different ideas?