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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: smolejv@gmx.net who wrote (7659)10/1/2002 9:47:05 AM
From: Jim Willie CB  Respond to of 89467
 
think again, look harder for shunning TBond financing
Dont see any feasible mechanics/scenario for this
cause&effect


how about yield offered as too low?
or USdollar declining?
or both low yield and US$ declining both?
or financed fed deficit amount is growing too fast?
or inflation beginning to rise ONLY IN USA?
or import prices beginning to rise substantially?
or MortgBacked securities drop in value first?
or delinquencies and foreclosures lead to a 25% drop in FannyMae?
or more Latin sovereign debt default threatens major US banks?
or derivative accident occurs, with bonds/gold/dollar at epicenter?


no, Mister
greed & fear take people into places they shouldnt hide
like huddling inside a cave during an earthquake!!!
they havent considered the end scenario for bond holding
ask a bondholder about their selling strategy, end game
they are focusing too much on avoidance of fraud, occurrence of default
they are paying any price for bonds for that safety
if everyone uses the same haven, and thus it is utilized to excess, then it fails to offer that expected haven

no, Mister
at some point, whether one month or three months, TBonds will turn down in principal value

the key to seeing this threat is noting how stupid most investors are
they were stupid with stocks at the top
they are now stupid with bonds at the top

you just havent noticed it yet
/ jim

p.s. thanks for clarification of Turkish uranium seizure