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To: GVTucker who wrote (171026)	10/1/2002 11:40:26 AM
From: D.J.Smyth	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

GV. It seems to me there is the possibility that the net shares long is a more predictible constant. The net shares short is an unpredictible variable. It is easier for the Hedge Funds to work from a base of known constants and launch, as it were, "guerilla trading" on the short side. The fluctuation of shares short swings on a daily basis from 40% to 150% of its median value, whereas the swing of shares long is but 2.5% to 6% of its median value. That is, if 95% of a companies available shares, say 1,000,000 is a median constant long, then the daily swing in the number of shares long will average 2.5% to 6% of that median, or from 20,000 to 50,000 shares per day. Of the expected 50,000 shares short, the daily swing can be from 20,000 to as high as 70,000, which can outweigh the net change in shares long. The tail wags the dog. Does it really matter who is doing it? Think what happens when the long side swings more to the negative side Uncle Fred with his six pack is doing it now.