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Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Petrol who wrote (3915)	10/2/2002 12:10:32 AM
From: bramble88	Respond to of 57110

Another thought regarding the likelihood and nature of the continuing and controlled descent: I find that I and anyone I read is not generally tempted to call a bottom to the bear market at every viagara inspired rally. The main reason for this, disregarding the economic/fundamental realities for the moment (those are easily put aside during a bout of exuberance by strategically remembering that the market is looking ahead), the issue of CAPITULATION. Clearly this is an excellent indicator of a bottom, and its absence SHOULD indicate a bottom has not been reached (unless there is aprotracted flat period). However, I think that the capitulation concept may have taken on an added role in this bear market. It is so widely discussed and searched for, that its absence is actually curtailing what otherwise may be much more vigorous bear-market rallies. Today for example, it is painfully clear that this rally is not the result of capitulation. I know it, you know it, the fund managers know it, the NPR announcer and talking heads on TV know it; h*ll, even J6P knows it. So- who's gonna buy the rallies? No one. They don't last. The one exception was July/August bottom -there was some talk of capitulation, hesitant, but it was out there; and we got a real rally. Same thing following Sept11-01. But I see us getting less and less of this, because the rallies are limited by everyone's waiting for a capitulation, and if the rallies are limited, it will be very rare for panick to really build-up momentum, and what everyone is waiting for, will not happen.. Just a thought. -BRMBLS