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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: t2 who wrote (61570)	10/2/2002 1:24:13 PM
From: kvkkc1	Respond to of 77400

Maybe reality starting to settle in. CSCO at 4x sales, 3x when you subtract cash and ST investments. That for little or no growth in revenue and profit growth suspect. Still issuing options like candy and not getting any return on that investment. Screwing the hell out of investors.

To: t2 who wrote (61570)	10/2/2002 3:14:34 PM
From: RetiredNow	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 77400

It's your call of course, but I think Cisco is just going through a process of getting revalued to something more commensurate with it's discounted free cash flows per share. On this thread, using optimistic assumptions, we've valued the company at somewhere between $5-8 per share. So if you purchase above that, then you are taking a risk. Cisco has a knack for surprising everyone, so nothing is out of the question, but there's your fair warning. My concern is that this is a typically weak quarter for Cisco and it's been a horendous quarter for everyone this year. Even the manufacturing purchasing index is down and the new orders index is below 50, which means it's shrinking. Bad news. A Cisco miss is a 50% chance right now, IMHO. Those aren't great odds. If they miss, then $8 is easy. If they hit their targets then you might see $1-2 to the upside in the short term. Either way, I think Nov-March are usually good months, so you'll be able to get your money back even if you have to hold it for a longer term trade. Good luck!