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Politics : Dutch Central Bank Sale Announcement Imminent? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alan Whirlwind who wrote (15751)	10/2/2002 7:35:05 PM
From: sea_urchin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 81087

Al >You will see the Dow below 6000 this month at some point imho. I'm hoping that will be the base for a nice rally and better times. Sounds like a contradiction unless, of course, you are anticipating that Costa Rica will win the war! >remember those 4 bear funds I mentioned beginning of last month? They were good for 19% for the month With Dow falling to 6000 it seems you are looking for 25% (minimum) for this month. At this rate, no-one will want the market to go up. Not being frivolous for a moment, in my opinion, if the Dow falls to 6000 it would be very serious and indicate a failure of the government to oppose the deflationary effect of the collapsing stock market bubble. In fact, it is likely to presage further market falls, insolvencies, retrenchments and the collapse of the property bubble. If the prophesy of John Murphy that the bear market will continue for many years is true, the outlook for the years ahead is, indeed, dismal.

To: Alan Whirlwind who wrote (15751)	10/3/2002 12:56:53 PM
From: sea_urchin	Respond to of 81087

Al >I'm hoping ....... for a nice rally and better times. Here's a very interesting article which gives a lot of evidence that the market can still go down a long way and that the debt will weigh heavily on the economy. moneycentral.msn.com I found this particularly revealing: >>>According to the Richebacher Letter, it turns out that from World War II until the late 1970s, it took about $1.40 of debt to increase GDP by a buck. Said differently, for every dollar added to GDP, 1.4 dollars was added to nonfinancial debt in this country. The latter began to mount in the 1980s, and levels really escalated in the 1990s. From 1997 to 2001, it took 2.6 dollars in additional debt to generate an additional dollar of GDP. From there, as the newsletter reports, things have gotten worse: "In 2001, the aggregate indebtedness of nonfederal borrowers rose by $1.109 trillion, while GDP only grew by $258 billion. This boosted the debt-to-income ratio to the unprecedented level of 4.3 to 1." In other words, it took 4.3 dollars of debt to generate an additional dollar of GDP growth.<<<