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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (5799)	10/3/2002 12:54:03 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95530

UTEK's balance sheet is very different from KLIC's.

To: Kirk © who wrote (5799)	10/3/2002 5:54:13 PM
From: scott_jiminez	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95530

<<Do you think the canary died?>> Well, Kirk, all I can say is that if I were of the steeple/pulpit demeanor I would have a much reinforced faith at this time. I liquidated my position in KLIC @ $16.50 a number of months ago and have been un-invested in the equipment space - for the first time in ~7 years - ever since. This entire sector is not simply an ongoing disaster - obliterating every 'rule' of cyclicity so many of us loved to cite - but it is my impression this may be something close to a permanent state of affairs. In my view, the number of companies in this space will need to contract by 1/3 to 1/2 and the remaining firms STILL will see sluggish growth for a long time. AMAT still has a p/s ratio of ~4. Absurd! This needs to be cut in half, at least, before the fluff, still clinging to some of the 'big boys' (KLAC = 3.4, NVLS = 3.6) is eliminated and the bottom is reached. And, IMO, this idea is supported by a day like today, where, after almost 2 1/2 years of devastating declines in the SOXX, the index loses another ~7%, and will likely crash to new ~4 year lows in the very near future. The equipment sector was as over built as the fiber optic/telecom space - since it was based on sooooooo many premises that now appear faulty (for example, 90% of current or potential PC owners simply don't need a CPU faster than 1-2 gHz, if that). So, this is a VERY long winded answer to your (what I am interpreting to be) non-rhetorical question: Will KLIC survive? It blows my mind to tell you that my current impression is that the odds now favor it (and many others) will not. I hope I am wrong.