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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: isopatch who wrote (19780)	10/3/2002 9:21:08 PM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum	Respond to of 36161

Hi Iso, IMHO? The Fed is too restrictive. I'm wondering about easing too. Then I wonder .... with - overcapacity, - unemployment, - consumers refinancing to inevitable increased debt loads (unless they buckle down and go against human nature) would it really matter right now ? They are between a rock and a hard place on this one and of course I don't have a clue either :o) We'd need to walk a fine line between spending and debt reduction no ? I don't see that saving would help until we are out of the mess. Anyone have any ideas on how to play some of the agricultural commodities ? I'm looking @ CRESY courtesy of Jay Chen on BBR. regards Kastel

To: isopatch who wrote (19780)	10/4/2002 12:23:22 AM
From: nspolar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

iso, I already gave less than 2 cents but will follow with a few additional thoughts. w/r to your Martin Cap charts, look again at the change in commercial paper volume. martincapital.com It is turning up. I made a comment a long time ago that I thought it might have been the steepness of this chart, and its near piercing of the 0 line that alarmed several analysts into the deflationist camp. Well viola it appears to be turning up. This is an important parameter imho, and it appears to have turned none to soon. I don't think this economy can function too well without commercial paper. Compliments of Joseph Erhardt I also post this graph of inventory cycles, which I also feel to be very important. csf.colorado.edu Could it be that we are approaching a local minima, or have already passed it, and Greenie knows it as well? Therefore he doesn't feel he needs to be more accomadative at this juncture. The last thing I think he would want is a super bear rally. I think he wants to ease this thing down and the longer it takes the better, in his eyes. Additionally I found Greenies recent warning to Congress to limit deficit spending of prime interest. Just off the top one might think the more the better, at this stage. But as you alluded to the other day, there is competition. The last thing Greenie needs at the moment is for the private sector to be locked out, and the turnover in commercial paper to go sharply negative. This is the sector that needs to start investing and turning over money again. If Uncle Sam takes all the funds, well that wouldn't be very desirable. I'll just finish up by stating I have no problem being a secular bear, and a secular gold bull. At the same time the recent history of US indices and more lengthy history of the Nikkei indicates some super bear rallies are possible, and could be strong enough to be cyclical. Not going to put a probability on one now, too dangerous. But I am being very alert here and am in playing with a little tech right here, albeit with a shorter more active approach than when I tried at NAZ 1350. So far so good, as some strategy adjustments were in order. I find it intuitive as well that gold and gold equities are imo performing quite poorly here, considering the depths of this market. Why aren't they doing better? They say the market looks ahead. If gold was looking ahead, and a huge general market dump was coming, in the not too distant future wouldn't it be doing better here? Seems so to me. Gold and gold equities presaged the current market dump quite nicely. To finish I don't think Arik T. G., nor I, were predicting or thinking of a final bottom here. Arik can comment if he so desires. I think that is a long ways off, maybe even longer off than I have recently thought, and we have PM'ed on that subject. Due to all the cross-currents, conflicts, what ever you want to call them, nothing in this market would surprise, least of all a really strong bear rally in the not too distant future. But it better not be too distant, or it probably ain't gonna happen. This present market imo is one tough nut.