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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nancy who wrote (38161)	10/4/2002 11:27:18 AM
From: Logain Ablar	Respond to of 69022

Nancy: Exl is cash flow positive. Proforma they made 55 cents last FY. This yr forecast is 70 cents (16 cents this qtr and a positive operations cash flow of $10 - $15 M). Since they announced debt and share buy backs I expect over $120 negative cash flow this qtr but a corresponding decrease in debt (actually favorable since they are buying debt at 80 cents / dollar) The GAAP loss is due to $100+ goodwill writedown on adquisition. I think the deferred comp was around $1M and they did have an inventory benefit last q as well. Company book is just over $10 but still around $5 of goodwill. Around $5 net solid assets with $3 ish financial. They are buying back debt and stock so #'s change. They should do fine over the next two years provided the economy doesn't go in the tank. After two years who knows with technology. emc miss is taking dow the sector and is one of elx's largest customers ( i doubt the emc news impacts elx 1st qtr #'s but it should impact next qtr's). This is a transition qtr with dell so they've guided to higher inventory. Balance sheet is much healthier than last year @ this time fwiw. JMO. Yes like vrts (they still make money). VRTS and EMC are the two storage plays in the sector. Just don't like brcd (an implosion will happen someday here). MCDTA has better products and if MCDTA wins patent suit brcd is bankrupt. MCDTA is in trouble with EMC problems. CSCO should have purchased mcdta vs. the private storage company.