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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Clarke who wrote (15563)	10/4/2002 12:16:17 AM
From: Joan Osland Graffius	Respond to of 79126

James, Amen. Joan

To: James Clarke who wrote (15563)	10/4/2002 7:14:05 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Respond to of 79126

I've seen buy ideas like this twice since I got going in 1995. March of 2000 and September of 2001 i think your sampling period is way too short to draw any conclusions. if there are secular changes underway, as i suspect, then i think it pays to look at a broader span of history. having said that, i too have sometimes felt the irresistible urge to go short or long at what i felt were market "extremes". sometimes these plays worked out well Message 17907873 but i consider it mostly luck, and i think making "hunch" calls on the market is one of those things that works until it doesn't work anymore. which is why i don't bet much on hunches. for the long run, i would much rather rely on expected returns calculated based on large historical samples, such as what Gross did in his "Dow 5000" piece.

To: James Clarke who wrote (15563)	10/4/2002 7:38:08 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 79126

Looks like an appropriate albeit difficult time for value investors to commit funds to selected stocks. Hard to even envision when the broad-based selling pressure will abate. I suspect that when people get their 3rd quarter mutual fund reports in a few days and see the carnage that's been wrought, there'll be quite a bit of liquidation by shocked and dismayed fund holders. Still I remain a buyer. Today I added a small amount to my holdings of ACAS and continued to slowly build small positions in NCR, MBI, MCGC, and RJR. finance.yahoo.com about MBI: I have a small amount of competitor ABK, which we have talked about here a few times. It's on my watch list again: if the stock drops a few more points to its annual low, I'll buy more (asssuming I still have money and haven't by then either fallen into a state of despair about the market or into a state of poverty regarding my portfolios). Paul Senior