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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (15567)	10/4/2002 10:56:39 AM
From: Mark Adams	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78752

re MLI; After just a casual glance, it looks like an ok stock, but not an uncommon value. I'd wonder about sales exposure to a slowing housing/commercial construction market.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (15567)	10/9/2002 11:22:16 AM
From: E.J. Neitz Jr	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78752

My recollection of market prior to and during Iraq 90-91: When Iraq invaded Kuwait in August 1990, the market sold off sharply for weeks. Many stocks were halved in a matter of a few months, especially when the TV news showed oil well after oil well on fire. People were scared and the market reflected it. During that time I slowly bought stocks at depressed prices only to see them drop further. By December of 1990, my portfolio was down $25+k. I attended an Individual Investors Association meeting in Philadelphia near the end of November and heard the evenings speaker Elaine Garzarelli talk about here indicators (With Lehman Brothers then). She went through all indicators and talked about how each quarter she locked herself in her home for 3 days and ran the numbers. Her assessment was very very very bullish indicators and urged listeners to buy. You could hear the groans all through the audience. Most didnt believe it, didnt want to hear that...they were miserable..loosing money and just knew she was wrong very wrong. I was a novice at the time and being down so far just said screw it and decided to put my balance of funds into the market. The pre-war intensified...you could cut the fear with a knife. I took antacids and bought more..yes..averaging down. I got to the point of being about 95% invested by January 91. My loss was now around $32k in the portfolio and I was nervous doubting every day that I had any sanity and started to look at the help wanted ads..even took 1 interview. It was bleak and bad..it sucked bad. Then it happened. Mid January of 91, I was very depressed, turned on TV at night and saw on every channel the skys over Iraq lit up. Missles flying everywhere. Explosions all over Bagdad. Anti-aircraft fire all over the sky. I was elated we finally attacked, but I was scared sh__less about the market the next day. I didnt sleep that night...watched TV all night. The next day the market opened weak but not a disaster. Within 3 days the market started to move up and started really gain steam. Within a 9 market day period my loss went to a $13k gain then within another 3 days a $27k gain and it rolled on for months. So did my gains until I started to scale out in April of that year. It was my best period ever. Will that happen again? I have no idea. I do suspect that it may and thats why I am involved with my strategy now. We shall see how things play out this time. There are differences and new threats....so no one knows. Just though I would share that with all of you.