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To: yard_man who wrote (195327)	10/4/2002 1:12:43 PM
From: benwood	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 436258

My mother-in-law came to my daughter's soccer game and couldn't believe how new all the autos were in the parking lot. Not just new, but expensive -- many SUV's, and not just the 'cheap' ones, either. She's from a small town in eastern WA, so apparently that hadn't been going on there, but in Seattle, that trend has been in overdrive. My other thought on the automakers & consumer debt in general is from when I helped my dad buy a used car about six months ago. I had made a comment to the salesman about >100% financing that some people needed for car, tax, and license, and he said it goes way beyond that now. He said people who come in with an upside-down loan get a "loan stack" with the residual due after the trade-in tacked onto the new car loan. He said that for the first time he was seeing customers coming in further upside down on a previous loan stack and restacking higher yet. He mentioned one customer who stacked 8k the first time and 18 months later was back for an Expedition and an extra 20k stacked. Note to self: suggest to Ford they build a flagship SUV called the Pyramid.

To: yard_man who wrote (195327)	10/4/2002 1:24:16 PM
From: reaper	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 436258

tip -- isn't AA's problem all the new capacity that is coming on line in China? they used to be a net importer, and now they are a HUGE net exporter. from what i understand worldwide capacity has to come down by at least 20% to even have any hope of getting supply/demand in balance. and capacity ain't gonna come off line in low-cost China; it will dis-proportionately come off line here in the US, would be my guess. AA and Alcan are potential zeroes. there is a company called Century Aluminum (CENX) -- the market cap is only $150mm but they have a lot of debt and I think they're done for. Cheers