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Strategies & Market Trends : 02 tax loss season;Mother of all buying opportunites? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LLCF who wrote (51)	10/4/2002 1:41:13 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 212

Not sure we are going to see a big "footprint" panic day. 27 days in row with VIX over 35, and three days in the past five with the put call over 1.00 is not sustainable. It may just ease up, and then there might be nice upward hiccup that just reflects the market trading more normally. Then I think it will just start to flatten out, build bases, but the price risk will have been washed out. I've looked at a chart of the 1929-1932 bear market and it looks exactly like the NASDAQ in terms of duration and depth. The five year period between 1932-1937 might be illustrative. Sort of "quiet" no fanfare bull market within a Great Depression. I doubt if speculative money will come rushing back in, this will be a watch paint dry, grid it out, sneaky value investor play (like the late 70's and 32-37). Right now I'm also focusing on big bullish divergences showing in many names. For instance how much much real risk (different from market risk, cause if you wait an hour you may get 4.18) is in a stock like SYNA which I just bought at 4.31? Another Red Herring, the leader in touch tech, 3.20 in cash, 100 revenues, above breakeven. There could be alot of merger and takeover activity in some of these highly regarded tech names (not so sure on telecom other than some equipment makers like SCMR and CIEN selling below cash). MACD SYNA: stockcharts.com[l,a]daclniay[p][vc60][iUa12,26,9]&pref=G Accumulation-Distribution SYNA: stockcharts.com[l,a]daclnnay[p][iUf]&pref=G