To: reaper who wrote (195380 ) 10/7/2002 12:40:13 PM From: Andriy Turhovach Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 436258 Reaper - Further to my post listing publicly traded trucking companies, I would like to offer the following observations. I have broken down that list to include the following companies. Those not included in the below list are extremely small, have little if any trading volume, and are traded on the OTC or OTCBB or other less than desirable exchanges - in my opinion they just aren't worth the effort. The rest can be broken down into two major categories. The LTL or "less than truckload" group, and the OTR national truckload carriers. In the first group you have Arkansas Best (ABFS), Old Dominion (ODFL), Roadway (ROAD), and Yellow Corp (YELL). With Cornflake's (CFWEQ) demise, these LTL carriers have picked up considerable additional business. CFWEQ's difficulties were probably related more to inept management rather than any dramatic weaknesses in the sector (IMHO). Cornflake was a huge player in the industry - the freight it carried and which will now be carried by its competitors is not inconsequential, a factor which no doubt contributes to the survivors being at or near their 52 week highs. The other group, the "over-the-road" national long haul truckload carriers can be divided into two groups. The first group would have to be the "big three" - JB Hunt (JBHT), Swift Transportation (SWFT), and Schneider International (which is not publicly traded). These three have, over the last ten years, been the key players in the trucking industry's M&A scene. There is no reason to think that this will change in the foreseeable future. The rest of the players just aren't big enough to play this game. This leaves the second group. Canon (AB), Celadon(CLDN), Covenant(CVTI), Heartland(HTLD), Knight(KNGT), Landstar(LSTR),PAM Transportation(PTSI), USA Truck(USAK), US Freightway(USFC), Werner(WERN), and US Express(XPRSA). These guys would be the potential targets of any further acquisitions, and would, IMO be the ones most susceptible to feeling any downward pressures in the industry. Mind you, that among these "second-tier" companies, one will find some very capable businesses run by excellent management. Some are niche players in a very specialized segment of the industry (although its been my experience that very highly specialized carriers tend to be fairly small, non-public companies). Incidentally, any companies I may have left out of this listing were left out simply because I know nothing about them. As well, I have no opinion WTR to Buster Brown (UPS), although I see someone else has expressed their opinion already this morning ;) What's the point of all this? Don't know. Someone brought up the trucking industry as a possible "sell" category a la the "homies". I suppose if one is a fervent believer in the coming apocalypse as detailed by Russell among others, then this industry sector is, no doubt, ripe for the pickin'. My only caveat is this (and I admit to not thinking about any of this a whole hell of a lot - heck, I'm just a simple-minded S&P 500 futures trader who's definition of the long term is anything more than five minutes) - these guys seem to have done pretty well for themselves over the last couple of years in a less than ideal economic climate. If, and I'll be the first to acknowledge the bigness of that "IF", stuff improves, I'm not so sure I'd want to be sitting on the short end of any of these companies. Back to lurk mode. Regards...